Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Freiburg will likely win this match with a probability of 57.09%. A win for Union Berlin has a probability of 21.27%, while a draw has a probability of 21.61%. The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win is “Any Other Home Win“, with a probability of 13.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 with a probability of 9.88% and 1-0 with a probability of 8.82%. The most probable Union Berlin win is 1-2 with a probability of 5.64%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 9.97%.
This match offers an excellent opportunity for Freiburg’s win, with bookmakers offering average odds of 2.15, much higher than the 1.75 calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based On XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Freiburg | Union Berlin | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 1.98 | 1.13 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 57.09% | 21.61% | 21.27% |
| Imp Odds | 1.75 | 4.63 | 4.70 |
Goals Over/Under Based On XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 4.45% | 22.47 |
| 1.5 | 18.30% | 5.46 |
| 2.5 | 39.85% | 2.51 |
| 3.5 | 62.21% | 1.61 |
| 4.5 | 79.61% | 1.26 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 95.55% | 1.05 |
| 1.5 | 81.70% | 1.22 |
| 2.5 | 60.15% | 1.66 |
| 3.5 | 37.79% | 2.65 |
| 4.5 | 20.39% | 4.90 |
Correct Score Based On XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 22.47 | 4.45% |
| 0-1 | 19.88 | 5.03% |
| 0-2 | 35.16 | 2.84% |
| 0-3 | 93.32 | 1.07% |
| 1-0 | 11.34 | 8.82% |
| 1-1 | 10.03 | 9.97% |
| 1-2 | 17.74 | 5.64% |
| 1-3 | 47.09 | 2.12% |
| 2-0 | 11.44 | 8.74% |
| 2-1 | 10.12 | 9.88% |
| 2-2 | 17.91 | 5.58% |
| 2-3 | 47.53 | 2.10% |
| 3-0 | 17.32 | 5.77% |
| 3-1 | 15.32 | 6.53% |
| 3-2 | 27.11 | 3.69% |
| 3-3 | 71.95 | 1.39% |
| Any Other Home Win | 7.32 | 13.66% |
| Any Other Away Win | 47.97 | 2.08% |
| Any Other Draw | 469.11 | 0.21% |
Full-time Result
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Freiburg | Union Berlin | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 2.29 | 0.92 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 68.07% | 18.23% | 13.63% |
| Imp Odds | 1.47 | 5.48 | 7.33 |
Goals Over/Under
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 4.04% | 24.73 |
| 1.5 | 17.02% | 5.88 |
| 2.5 | 37.83% | 2.64 |
| 3.5 | 60.08% | 1.66 |
| 4.5 | 77.92% | 1.28 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 95.96% | 1.04 |
| 1.5 | 82.98% | 1.21 |
| 2.5 | 62.17% | 1.61 |
| 3.5 | 39.92% | 2.50 |
| 4.5 | 22.08% | 4.53 |
Correct Score
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 4.04% | 24.73 |
| 0-1 | 3.72% | 26.88 |
| 0-2 | 1.71% | 58.43 |
| 0-3 | 0.52% | 190.55 |
| 1-0 | 9.25% | 10.81 |
| 1-1 | 8.51% | 11.75 |
| 1-2 | 3.92% | 25.54 |
| 1-3 | 1.20% | 83.29 |
| 2-0 | 10.59% | 9.45 |
| 2-1 | 9.74% | 10.27 |
| 2-2 | 4.48% | 22.33 |
| 2-3 | 1.37% | 72.81 |
| 3-0 | 8.07% | 12.39 |
| 3-1 | 7.43% | 13.47 |
| 3-2 | 3.42% | 29.27 |
| 3-3 | 1.05% | 95.47 |
| Any Other Home Win | 19.58% | 5.11 |
| Any Other Away Win | 1.05% | 95.69 |
| Any Other Draw | 0.15% | 666.22 |