Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Atletico Madrid is likely to win this match with a probability of 68.5%. A win for Valencia has a probability of 12.87%, while a draw has a probability of 18.58%. The most likely scoreline for a Atletico Madrid win is “Any Other Home Win“, with a probability of 18.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 with a probability of 11.6% and 1-0 with a probability of 10.51%. The most probable Valencia win is 0-1 with a probability of 3.99%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 8.81%.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
By XG
By Goals
By XG
Full-time Result Based on XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Atletico Madrid | Valencia | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 2.21 | 0.84 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 68.50% | 18.58% | 12.87% |
| Imp Odds | 1.46 | 5.38 | 7.77 |
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 4.76% | 20.99 |
| 1.5 | 19.27% | 5.19 |
| 2.5 | 41.34% | 2.42 |
| 3.5 | 63.74% | 1.57 |
| 4.5 | 80.78% | 1.24 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 95.24% | 1.05 |
| 1.5 | 80.73% | 1.24 |
| 2.5 | 58.66% | 1.70 |
| 3.5 | 36.26% | 2.76 |
| 4.5 | 19.22% | 5.20 |
Correct Score Based on XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 20.99 | 4.76% |
| 0-1 | 25.06 | 3.99% |
| 0-2 | 59.82 | 1.67% |
| 0-3 | 214.22 | 0.47% |
| 1-0 | 9.51 | 10.51% |
| 1-1 | 11.36 | 8.81% |
| 1-2 | 27.11 | 3.69% |
| 1-3 | 97.09 | 1.03% |
| 2-0 | 8.62 | 11.60% |
| 2-1 | 10.29 | 9.71% |
| 2-2 | 24.58 | 4.07% |
| 2-3 | 88.01 | 1.14% |
| 3-0 | 11.73 | 8.53% |
| 3-1 | 14.00 | 7.14% |
| 3-2 | 33.42 | 2.99% |
| 3-3 | 119.67 | 0.84% |
| Any Other Home Win | 5.55 | 18.02% |
| Any Other Away Win | 129.77 | 0.77% |
| Any Other Draw | 961.06 | 0.10% |
By Goals
Full-time Result
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Atletico Madrid | Valencia | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 2.67 | 1.16 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 69.21% | 16.29% | 14.31% |
| Imp Odds | 1.44 | 6.14 | 6.99 |
Goals Over/Under
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 2.16% | 46.36 |
| 1.5 | 10.43% | 9.59 |
| 2.5 | 26.31% | 3.80 |
| 3.5 | 46.61% | 2.15 |
| 4.5 | 66.07% | 1.51 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 97.84% | 1.02 |
| 1.5 | 89.57% | 1.12 |
| 2.5 | 73.69% | 1.36 |
| 3.5 | 53.39% | 1.87 |
| 4.5 | 33.93% | 2.95 |
Correct Score
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 2.16% | 46.36 |
| 0-1 | 2.51% | 39.81 |
| 0-2 | 1.46% | 68.38 |
| 0-3 | 0.57% | 176.15 |
| 1-0 | 5.76% | 17.35 |
| 1-1 | 6.71% | 14.90 |
| 1-2 | 3.91% | 25.59 |
| 1-3 | 1.52% | 65.93 |
| 2-0 | 7.70% | 12.99 |
| 2-1 | 8.97% | 11.15 |
| 2-2 | 5.22% | 19.15 |
| 2-3 | 2.03% | 49.35 |
| 3-0 | 6.86% | 14.58 |
| 3-1 | 7.99% | 12.52 |
| 3-2 | 4.65% | 21.51 |
| 3-3 | 1.80% | 55.40 |
| Any Other Home Win | 27.28% | 3.67 |
| Any Other Away Win | 2.11% | 47.28 |
| Any Other Draw | 0.40% | 250.80 |