Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that PSG is likely to win this match with a probability of 85.12%. A win for Metz has a probability of 4.98%, while a draw has a probability of 8.85%. The most likely scoreline for a PSG win is “Any Other Home Win“, with a probability of 45.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 3-0 with a probability of 9.3% and 2-0 with a probability of 7.89%. The most probable Metz win is 1-2 with a probability of 1.56%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 3.37%.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
By Goals
By XG
By Goals
Full-time Result
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Paris Saint Germain | Metz | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 3.54 | 0.84 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 85.12% | 8.85% | 4.98% |
| Imp Odds | 1.17 | 11.30 | 20.08 |
Goals Over/Under
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 1.26% | 79.22 |
| 1.5 | 6.78% | 14.75 |
| 2.5 | 18.85% | 5.31 |
| 3.5 | 36.43% | 2.74 |
| 4.5 | 55.65% | 1.80 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 98.74% | 1.01 |
| 1.5 | 93.22% | 1.07 |
| 2.5 | 81.15% | 1.23 |
| 3.5 | 63.57% | 1.57 |
| 4.5 | 44.35% | 2.25 |
Correct Score
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 1.26% | 79.22 |
| 0-1 | 1.06% | 94.70 |
| 0-2 | 0.44% | 226.44 |
| 0-3 | 0.12% | 812.13 |
| 1-0 | 4.46% | 22.40 |
| 1-1 | 3.73% | 26.78 |
| 1-2 | 1.56% | 64.04 |
| 1-3 | 0.44% | 229.69 |
| 2-0 | 7.89% | 12.67 |
| 2-1 | 6.60% | 15.15 |
| 2-2 | 2.76% | 36.23 |
| 2-3 | 0.77% | 129.93 |
| 3-0 | 9.30% | 10.75 |
| 3-1 | 7.78% | 12.86 |
| 3-2 | 3.25% | 30.74 |
| 3-3 | 0.91% | 110.24 |
| Any Other Home Win | 45.83% | 2.18 |
| Any Other Away Win | 0.56% | 177.60 |
| Any Other Draw | 0.19% | 528.44 |
By XG
Full-time Result Based on XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Paris Saint Germain | Metz | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 2.53 | 0.57 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 79.74% | 13.80% | 6.33% |
| Imp Odds | 1.25 | 7.24 | 15.79 |
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 4.52% | 22.10 |
| 1.5 | 18.53% | 5.40 |
| 2.5 | 40.21% | 2.49 |
| 3.5 | 62.58% | 1.60 |
| 4.5 | 79.89% | 1.25 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 95.48% | 1.05 |
| 1.5 | 81.47% | 1.23 |
| 2.5 | 59.79% | 1.67 |
| 3.5 | 37.42% | 2.67 |
| 4.5 | 20.11% | 4.97 |
Correct Score Based on XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 22.10 | 4.52% |
| 0-1 | 38.73 | 2.58% |
| 0-2 | 135.76 | 0.74% |
| 0-3 | 713.78 | 0.14% |
| 1-0 | 8.75 | 11.42% |
| 1-1 | 15.34 | 6.52% |
| 1-2 | 53.77 | 1.86% |
| 1-3 | 282.67 | 0.35% |
| 2-0 | 6.93 | 14.42% |
| 2-1 | 12.15 | 8.23% |
| 2-2 | 42.59 | 2.35% |
| 2-3 | 223.89 | 0.45% |
| 3-0 | 8.24 | 12.14% |
| 3-1 | 14.44 | 6.93% |
| 3-2 | 50.60 | 1.98% |
| 3-3 | 266.00 | 0.38% |
| Any Other Home Win | 4.06 | 24.62% |
| Any Other Away Win | 517.02 | 0.19% |
| Any Other Draw | 2,786.58 | 0.04% |