Our analysis of all available data, including XG, recent performances, and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Manchester City win, with a probability of 57.92%. A win for Arsenal has a chance of 22.11% and a draw probability of 19.38%. The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win is “Any Other Away Win” with a probability of 14.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 with a probability of 9.11% and 1-3 with a probability of 7.11%. The most probable Arsenal win is 2-1 with a probability of 5.44%, while for a drawn scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 7.78%.
This match is interesting for betting on the away team (Manchester City), as the average odds for a win offered by bookmakers are higher than what our model calculates, with odds at 1.73 compared to around 2.56.
Check out free Premier League predictions on other matches.
Arsenal vs. Manchester City Betting Tips By XG and Performance
Match Result Market
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Arsenal | Manchester City | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 1.40 | 2.34 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 22.11% | 19.38% | 57.92% |
| Imp Odds | 4.52 | 5.16 | 1.73 |
Over and Under Market
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 2.38% | 42.10 |
| 1.5 | 11.26% | 8.88 |
| 2.5 | 27.87% | 3.59 |
| 3.5 | 48.58% | 2.06 |
| 4.5 | 67.95% | 1.47 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 97.62% | 1.02 |
| 1.5 | 88.74% | 1.13 |
| 2.5 | 72.13% | 1.39 |
| 3.5 | 51.42% | 1.94 |
| 4.5 | 32.05% | 3.12 |
Correct Score Market
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 2.38% | 42.10 |
| 0-1 | 5.56% | 17.98 |
| 0-2 | 6.51% | 15.36 |
| 0-3 | 5.08% | 19.69 |
| 1-0 | 3.32% | 30.09 |
| 1-1 | 7.78% | 12.85 |
| 1-2 | 9.11% | 10.98 |
| 1-3 | 7.11% | 14.07 |
| 2-0 | 2.32% | 43.02 |
| 2-1 | 5.44% | 18.38 |
| 2-2 | 6.37% | 15.70 |
| 2-3 | 4.97% | 20.12 |
| 3-0 | 1.08% | 92.26 |
| 3-1 | 2.54% | 39.41 |
| 3-2 | 2.97% | 33.67 |
| 3-3 | 2.32% | 43.14 |
| Any Other Home Win | 4.43% | 22.58 |
| Any Other Away Win | 14.96% | 6.69 |
| Any Other Draw | 0.54% | 184.29 |