Our analysis of all available data, including XG, recent performances, and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Brighton win, with a probability of 45.08%. A win for Liverpool has a chance of 33.46% and a draw probability of 21.34%. The most likely scoreline for a Brighton win is “Any Other Home Win” with a probability of 13.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 with a probability of 8.36% and 3-1 with a probability of 5.58%. The most probable Liverpool win is “Any Other Away Win” with a probability of 7.17%, while for a drawn scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 8.34%.
This match is interesting for betting on the home team (Brighton), as the average odds for a win offered by bookmakers are higher than what our model calculates, with odds at 2.22 compared to around 2.85.
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Brighton vs Liverpool Betting Tips By XG and Performance
Match Result Market By XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Brighton | Liverpool | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 2.00 | 1.71 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 45.08% | 21.34% | 33.46% |
| Imp Odds | 2.22 | 4.69 | 2.99 |
Over and Under Market By XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 2.43% | 41.15 |
| 1.5 | 11.46% | 8.72 |
| 2.5 | 28.25% | 3.54 |
| 3.5 | 49.06% | 2.04 |
| 4.5 | 68.39% | 1.46 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 97.57% | 1.02 |
| 1.5 | 88.54% | 1.13 |
| 2.5 | 71.75% | 1.39 |
| 3.5 | 50.94% | 1.96 |
| 4.5 | 31.61% | 3.16 |
Correct Score Market By XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 41.15 | 2.43% |
| 0-1 | 24.01 | 4.16% |
| 0-2 | 28.03 | 3.57% |
| 0-3 | 49.08 | 2.04% |
| 1-0 | 20.53 | 4.87% |
| 1-1 | 11.98 | 8.34% |
| 1-2 | 13.99 | 7.15% |
| 1-3 | 24.49 | 4.08% |
| 2-0 | 20.50 | 4.88% |
| 2-1 | 11.96 | 8.36% |
| 2-2 | 13.96 | 7.16% |
| 2-3 | 24.45 | 4.09% |
| 3-0 | 30.69 | 3.26% |
| 3-1 | 17.91 | 5.58% |
| 3-2 | 20.91 | 4.78% |
| 3-3 | 36.60 | 2.73% |
| Any Other Home Win | 7.49 | 13.35% |
| Any Other Away Win | 13.94 | 7.17% |
| Any Other Draw | 148.16 | 0.67% |
Match Result Market
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Brighton | Liverpool | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 2.14 | 1.82 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 45.78% | 20.59% | 33.48% |
| Imp Odds | 2.18 | 4.86 | 2.99 |
Over and Under Market
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 1.91% | 52.36 |
| 1.5 | 9.47% | 10.56 |
| 2.5 | 24.43% | 4.09 |
| 3.5 | 44.17% | 2.26 |
| 4.5 | 63.70% | 1.57 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 98.09% | 1.02 |
| 1.5 | 90.53% | 1.10 |
| 2.5 | 75.57% | 1.32 |
| 3.5 | 55.83% | 1.79 |
| 4.5 | 36.30% | 2.75 |
Correct Score Market
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 1.91% | 52.36 |
| 0-1 | 3.48% | 28.76 |
| 0-2 | 3.17% | 31.59 |
| 0-3 | 1.92% | 52.04 |
| 1-0 | 4.08% | 24.50 |
| 1-1 | 7.43% | 13.45 |
| 1-2 | 6.77% | 14.78 |
| 1-3 | 4.11% | 24.35 |
| 2-0 | 4.36% | 22.92 |
| 2-1 | 7.94% | 12.59 |
| 2-2 | 7.23% | 13.83 |
| 2-3 | 4.39% | 22.78 |
| 3-0 | 3.11% | 32.18 |
| 3-1 | 5.66% | 17.67 |
| 3-2 | 5.15% | 19.41 |
| 3-3 | 3.13% | 31.98 |
| Any Other Home Win | 15.47% | 6.46 |
| Any Other Away Win | 8.43% | 11.86 |
| Any Other Draw | 0.89% | 112.01 |