Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Brighton is likely to win this match with a probability of 63.9%. A win for Nottingham has a probability of 17%, while a draw has a probability of 19.03%. The most likely scoreline for a Brighton win is “Any Other Home Win“, with a probability of 19.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 with a probability of 9.73% and 2-0 with a probability of 8.87%. The most probable Nottingham win is 1-2 with a probability of 4.68%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 8.53%.
This match offers an opportunity for betting on total goals over 2.5, given that the average projected goals calculated by our model stand at 3.37 based on XG and 3.5 based on actual goals scored statistics.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based On XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Brighton | Nottingham Forest | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 2.28 | 1.10 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 63.90% | 19.03% | 17.00% |
| Imp Odds | 1.56 | 5.26 | 5.88 |
Goals Over/Under Based On XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 3.41% | 29.35 |
| 1.5 | 14.92% | 6.70 |
| 2.5 | 34.38% | 2.91 |
| 3.5 | 56.29% | 1.78 |
| 4.5 | 74.80% | 1.34 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 96.59% | 1.04 |
| 1.5 | 85.08% | 1.18 |
| 2.5 | 65.62% | 1.52 |
| 3.5 | 43.71% | 2.29 |
| 4.5 | 25.20% | 3.97 |
Correct Score Based On XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 29.35 | 3.41% |
| 0-1 | 26.74 | 3.74% |
| 0-2 | 48.74 | 2.05% |
| 0-3 | 133.22 | 0.75% |
| 1-0 | 12.86 | 7.77% |
| 1-1 | 11.72 | 8.53% |
| 1-2 | 21.36 | 4.68% |
| 1-3 | 58.39 | 1.71% |
| 2-0 | 11.27 | 8.87% |
| 2-1 | 10.27 | 9.73% |
| 2-2 | 18.72 | 5.34% |
| 2-3 | 51.18 | 1.95% |
| 3-0 | 14.82 | 6.75% |
| 3-1 | 13.51 | 7.40% |
| 3-2 | 24.61 | 4.06% |
| 3-3 | 67.28 | 1.49% |
| Any Other Home Win | 5.18 | 19.31% |
| Any Other Away Win | 53.81 | 1.86% |
| Any Other Draw | 388.18 | 0.26% |
Full-time Result Based On Goals
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Brighton | Nottingham Forest | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 2.54 | 0.96 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 71.28% | 16.35% | 12.24% |
| Imp Odds | 1.40 | 6.11 | 8.17 |
Goals Over/Under Based On Goals
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 3.02% | 33.14 |
| 1.5 | 13.58% | 7.36 |
| 2.5 | 32.07% | 3.12 |
| 3.5 | 53.65% | 1.86 |
| 4.5 | 72.53% | 1.38 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 96.98% | 1.03 |
| 1.5 | 86.42% | 1.16 |
| 2.5 | 67.93% | 1.47 |
| 3.5 | 46.35% | 2.16 |
| 4.5 | 27.47% | 3.64 |
Correct Score Based On Goals
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 3.02% | 33.14 |
| 0-1 | 2.91% | 34.34 |
| 0-2 | 1.40% | 71.18 |
| 0-3 | 0.45% | 221.30 |
| 1-0 | 7.65% | 13.07 |
| 1-1 | 7.38% | 13.54 |
| 1-2 | 3.56% | 28.07 |
| 1-3 | 1.15% | 87.27 |
| 2-0 | 9.70% | 10.31 |
| 2-1 | 9.36% | 10.68 |
| 2-2 | 4.52% | 22.14 |
| 2-3 | 1.45% | 68.83 |
| 3-0 | 8.20% | 12.19 |
| 3-1 | 7.91% | 12.64 |
| 3-2 | 3.82% | 26.19 |
| 3-3 | 1.23% | 81.43 |
| Any Other Home Win | 24.63% | 4.06 |
| Any Other Away Win | 1.18% | 84.68 |
| Any Other Draw | 0.21% | 481.94 |
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