Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Crystal Palace is likely to win this match with a probability of 50.85%. A win for Luton has a probability of 26.73%, while a draw has a probability of 22.38%. The most likely scoreline for a Crystal Palace win is “Any Other Home Win“, with a probability of 12.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 with a probability of 9.51% and 1-0 with a probability of 7.57%. The most probable Luton win is 1-2 with a probability of 6.64%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 10.03%.
This match offers an opportunity for betting on total goals over 2.5 for 1.86, given that the average projected goals calculated by our model stand at 3.15 based on XG and 3.22 based on scored goals statistics.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based On Goals
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Crystal Palace | Luton | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 1.90 | 1.32 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 50.85% | 22.38% | 26.73% |
| Imp Odds | 1.97 | 4.47 | 3.74 |
Goals Over/Under Based On Goals
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 3.99% | 25.05 |
| 1.5 | 16.85% | 5.94 |
| 2.5 | 37.56% | 2.66 |
| 3.5 | 59.79% | 1.67 |
| 4.5 | 77.69% | 1.29 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 96.01% | 1.04 |
| 1.5 | 83.15% | 1.20 |
| 2.5 | 62.44% | 1.60 |
| 3.5 | 40.21% | 2.49 |
| 4.5 | 22.31% | 4.48 |
Correct Score Based On Goals
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 3.99% | 25.05 |
| 0-1 | 5.29% | 18.92 |
| 0-2 | 3.50% | 28.58 |
| 0-3 | 1.54% | 64.74 |
| 1-0 | 7.57% | 13.21 |
| 1-1 | 10.03% | 9.97 |
| 1-2 | 6.64% | 15.07 |
| 1-3 | 2.93% | 34.13 |
| 2-0 | 7.18% | 13.93 |
| 2-1 | 9.51% | 10.52 |
| 2-2 | 6.30% | 15.89 |
| 2-3 | 2.78% | 35.99 |
| 3-0 | 4.54% | 22.02 |
| 3-1 | 6.01% | 16.63 |
| 3-2 | 3.98% | 25.12 |
| 3-3 | 1.76% | 56.92 |
| Any Other Home Win | 12.05% | 8.30 |
| Any Other Away Win | 3.40% | 29.39 |
| Any Other Draw | 0.31% | 327.32 |
Full-time Result Based On XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Crystal Palace | Luton | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 2.23 | 0.92 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 66.87% | 18.79% | 14.28% |
| Imp Odds | 1.50 | 5.32 | 7.00 |
Goals Over/Under Based On XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 4.28% | 23.38 |
| 1.5 | 17.76% | 5.63 |
| 2.5 | 39.00% | 2.56 |
| 3.5 | 61.33% | 1.63 |
| 4.5 | 78.91% | 1.27 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 95.72% | 1.04 |
| 1.5 | 82.24% | 1.22 |
| 2.5 | 61.00% | 1.64 |
| 3.5 | 38.67% | 2.59 |
| 4.5 | 21.09% | 4.74 |
Correct Score Based On XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 23.38 | 4.28% |
| 0-1 | 25.30 | 3.95% |
| 0-2 | 54.78 | 1.83% |
| 0-3 | 177.87 | 0.56% |
| 1-0 | 10.49 | 9.53% |
| 1-1 | 11.36 | 8.80% |
| 1-2 | 24.59 | 4.07% |
| 1-3 | 79.84 | 1.25% |
| 2-0 | 9.42 | 10.62% |
| 2-1 | 10.20 | 9.81% |
| 2-2 | 22.07 | 4.53% |
| 2-3 | 71.67 | 1.40% |
| 3-0 | 12.68 | 7.88% |
| 3-1 | 13.73 | 7.28% |
| 3-2 | 29.72 | 3.36% |
| 3-3 | 96.50 | 1.04% |
| Any Other Home Win | 5.44 | 18.39% |
| Any Other Away Win | 93.72 | 1.07% |
| Any Other Draw | 689.93 | 0.14% |
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