Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Manchester United is likely to win this match with a probability of 87.7%. A win for Southampton has a probability of 1.25%, while a draw has a probability of 5.83%. The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United win is 0-3, with a probability of 16.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 with a probability of 15.38% and “Any Other Away Wins” with a probability of 9.59%. The most probable Southampton win is 1-0 with a probability of 0.74%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 0-0 with a probability of 2.81%.
This match presents an excellent opportunity to consider betting on Manchester United to win the match, as bookmakers are offering average odds of 1.81 for Manchester United win, which is higher than the 1.14 calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based On XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Southampton | Manchester United | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 0.26 | 3.31 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 1.25% | 5.83% | 87.70% |
| Imp Odds | 80.17 | 17.15 | 1.14 |
Goals Over/Under Based On XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 2.81% | 35.64 |
| 1.5 | 12.83% | 7.79 |
| 2.5 | 30.75% | 3.25 |
| 3.5 | 52.08% | 1.92 |
| 4.5 | 71.15% | 1.41 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 97.19% | 1.03 |
| 1.5 | 87.17% | 1.15 |
| 2.5 | 69.25% | 1.44 |
| 3.5 | 47.92% | 2.09 |
| 4.5 | 28.85% | 3.47 |
Correct Score Based On XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 35.64 | 2.81% |
| 0-1 | 10.77 | 9.29% |
| 0-2 | 6.50 | 15.38% |
| 0-3 | 5.89 | 16.97% |
| 1-0 | 135.64 | 0.74% |
| 1-1 | 40.97 | 2.44% |
| 1-2 | 24.75 | 4.04% |
| 1-3 | 22.43 | 4.46% |
| 2-0 | 1,032.41 | 0.10% |
| 2-1 | 311.83 | 0.32% |
| 2-2 | 188.37 | 0.53% |
| 2-3 | 170.69 | 0.59% |
| 3-0 | 11,786.82 | 0.01% |
| 3-1 | 3,560.12 | 0.03% |
| 3-2 | 2,150.62 | 0.05% |
| 3-3 | 1,948.73 | 0.05% |
| Any Other Home Win | 10,558.42 | 0.01% |
| Any Other Away Win | 10.43 | 9.59% |
| Any Other Draw | 34,605.71 | 0.00% |