Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Tottenham is likely to win this match with a probability of 40.43%. A win for Everton has a probability of 38.07%, while a draw has a probability of 21.34%. The most likely scoreline for a Tottenham win is “Any Other Home Win“, with a probability of 11.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 with a probability of 7.81% and 3-1 with a probability of 5%. The most probable Everton win is “Any Other Away Win” with a probability of 9%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 8.14%.
This match offers an opportunity to bet on Everton’s not to lose (win or draw), with bookmakers offering average odds for Tottenham win of 1.83, much lower than the 2.47 calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based on XG
Home Team | Away Team | ||
Tottenham | Everton | ||
Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
1.92 | 1.86 | ||
Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
%Chance | 40.43% | 21.34% | 38.07% |
Imp Odds | 2.47 | 4.69 | 2.63 |
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
Under Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 2.28% | 43.92 |
1.5 | 10.89% | 9.18 |
2.5 | 27.18% | 3.68 |
3.5 | 47.71% | 2.10 |
4.5 | 67.13% | 1.49 |
Over Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 97.72% | 1.02 |
1.5 | 89.11% | 1.12 |
2.5 | 72.82% | 1.37 |
3.5 | 52.29% | 1.91 |
4.5 | 32.87% | 3.04 |
Correct Score Based on XG
Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
0-0 | 43.92 | 2.28% |
0-1 | 23.57 | 4.24% |
0-2 | 25.31 | 3.95% |
0-3 | 40.76 | 2.45% |
1-0 | 22.88 | 4.37% |
1-1 | 12.28 | 8.14% |
1-2 | 13.19 | 7.58% |
1-3 | 21.23 | 4.71% |
2-0 | 23.84 | 4.19% |
2-1 | 12.80 | 7.81% |
2-2 | 13.74 | 7.28% |
2-3 | 22.13 | 4.52% |
3-0 | 37.26 | 2.68% |
3-1 | 20.00 | 5.00% |
3-2 | 21.48 | 4.66% |
3-3 | 34.58 | 2.89% |
Any Other Home Win | 8.54 | 11.71% |
Any Other Away Win | 11.12 | 9.00% |
Any Other Draw | 133.60 | 0.75% |
Full-time Result
Home Team | Away Team | ||
Tottenham | Everton | ||
Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
1.49 | 1.53 | ||
Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
%Chance | 36.88% | 24.20% | 38.83% |
Imp Odds | 2.71 | 4.13 | 2.58 |
Goals Over/Under
Under Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 4.88% | 20.49 |
1.5 | 19.62% | 5.10 |
2.5 | 41.87% | 2.39 |
3.5 | 64.27% | 1.56 |
4.5 | 81.19% | 1.23 |
Over Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 95.12% | 1.05 |
1.5 | 80.38% | 1.24 |
2.5 | 58.13% | 1.72 |
3.5 | 35.73% | 2.80 |
4.5 | 18.81% | 5.32 |
Correct Score
Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
0-0 | 4.88% | 20.49 |
0-1 | 7.48% | 13.37 |
0-2 | 5.74% | 17.43 |
0-3 | 2.93% | 34.11 |
1-0 | 7.26% | 13.78 |
1-1 | 11.12% | 8.99 |
1-2 | 8.53% | 11.73 |
1-3 | 4.36% | 22.94 |
2-0 | 5.39% | 18.54 |
2-1 | 8.27% | 12.09 |
2-2 | 6.34% | 15.77 |
2-3 | 3.24% | 30.86 |
3-0 | 2.67% | 37.41 |
3-1 | 4.10% | 24.40 |
3-2 | 3.14% | 31.83 |
3-3 | 1.61% | 62.27 |
Any Other Home Win | 6.05% | 16.54 |
Any Other Away Win | 5.06% | 19.77 |
Any Other Draw | 0.25% | 398.32 |