Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Monza will likely win this match with a probability of 45.62%. A win for Empoli has a probability of 29.25%, while a draw has a probability of 25%. The most likely scoreline for a Monza win is 0-1, with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 with a probability of 9.25% and 0-2 with a probability of 7.71%. The most probable Empoli win is 1-0 with a probability of 7.58%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 11.84%.
This match presents an excellent opportunity to consider betting on Monza to win the match, as bookmakers are offering average odds of 2.6 for Monza’s win, which is higher than the 2.19 calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based On XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Empoli | Monza | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 1.20 | 1.56 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 29.25% | 25.00% | 45.62% |
| Imp Odds | 3.42 | 4.00 | 2.19 |
Goals Over/Under Based On XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 6.32% | 15.83 |
| 1.5 | 23.77% | 4.21 |
| 2.5 | 47.86% | 2.09 |
| 3.5 | 70.05% | 1.43 |
| 4.5 | 85.36% | 1.17 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 93.68% | 1.07 |
| 1.5 | 76.23% | 1.31 |
| 2.5 | 52.14% | 1.92 |
| 3.5 | 29.95% | 3.34 |
| 4.5 | 14.64% | 6.83 |
Correct Score Based On XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 15.83 | 6.32% |
| 0-1 | 10.13 | 9.87% |
| 0-2 | 12.96 | 7.71% |
| 0-3 | 24.89 | 4.02% |
| 1-0 | 13.20 | 7.58% |
| 1-1 | 8.45 | 11.84% |
| 1-2 | 10.81 | 9.25% |
| 1-3 | 20.76 | 4.82% |
| 2-0 | 22.01 | 4.54% |
| 2-1 | 14.09 | 7.10% |
| 2-2 | 18.03 | 5.55% |
| 2-3 | 34.62 | 2.89% |
| 3-0 | 55.08 | 1.82% |
| 3-1 | 35.25 | 2.84% |
| 3-2 | 45.11 | 2.22% |
| 3-3 | 86.62 | 1.15% |
| Any Other Home Win | 31.62 | 3.16% |
| Any Other Away Win | 20.16 | 4.96% |
| Any Other Draw | 685.50 | 0.15% |