Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Real Madrid is likely to win this match with a probability of 87.74%. A win for Almeria has a probability of 3.53%, while a draw has a probability of 7.67%. The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win is “Any Other Home Win“, with a probability of 46.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 3-0 with a probability of 11.04% and 2-0 with a probability of 9.34%. The most probable Almeria win is 1-2 with a probability of 1.16%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 3.5%.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
By XG
By XG
Full-time Result Based on XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Real Madrid | Almeria | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 3.54 | 0.66 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 87.74% | 7.67% | 3.53% |
| Imp Odds | 1.14 | 13.04 | 28.35 |
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 1.49% | 67.23 |
| 1.5 | 7.75% | 12.91 |
| 2.5 | 20.92% | 4.78 |
| 3.5 | 39.39% | 2.54 |
| 4.5 | 58.82% | 1.70 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 98.51% | 1.02 |
| 1.5 | 92.25% | 1.08 |
| 2.5 | 79.08% | 1.26 |
| 3.5 | 60.61% | 1.65 |
| 4.5 | 41.18% | 2.43 |
Correct Score Based on XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 67.23 | 1.49% |
| 0-1 | 101.27 | 0.99% |
| 0-2 | 305.06 | 0.33% |
| 0-3 | 1,378.49 | 0.07% |
| 1-0 | 18.97 | 5.27% |
| 1-1 | 28.57 | 3.50% |
| 1-2 | 86.07 | 1.16% |
| 1-3 | 388.94 | 0.26% |
| 2-0 | 10.70 | 9.34% |
| 2-1 | 16.12 | 6.20% |
| 2-2 | 48.57 | 2.06% |
| 2-3 | 219.48 | 0.46% |
| 3-0 | 9.06 | 11.04% |
| 3-1 | 13.65 | 7.33% |
| 3-2 | 41.11 | 2.43% |
| 3-3 | 185.77 | 0.54% |
| Any Other Home Win | 2.17 | 46.12% |
| Any Other Away Win | 397.88 | 0.25% |
| Any Other Draw | 1,147.77 | 0.09% |