Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Milan will likely win this match with a probability of 67.33%. A win for Bologna has a probability of 9%, while a draw has a probability of 23.66%. The most likely scoreline for a Milan win is 1-0, with a probability of 21.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 with a probability of 17.22% and 3-0 with a probability of 9.2%. The most probable Bologna win is 0-1 with a probability of 5.45%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 0-0 with a probability of 13.39%.
This match presents an excellent opportunity to consider betting on Milan to win the match, as bookmakers are offering average odds of 1.7 for Milan’s win, which is higher than the 1.49 calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result
Home Team | Away Team | ||
AC Milan | Bologna | ||
Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
1.60 | 0.41 | ||
Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
%Chance | 67.33% | 23.66% | 9.00% |
Imp Odds | 1.49 | 4.23 | 11.11 |
Goals Over/Under
Under Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 13.39% | 7.47 |
1.5 | 40.31% | 2.48 |
2.5 | 67.38% | 1.48 |
3.5 | 85.52% | 1.17 |
4.5 | 94.64% | 1.06 |
Over Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 86.61% | 1.15 |
1.5 | 59.69% | 1.68 |
2.5 | 32.62% | 3.07 |
3.5 | 14.48% | 6.90 |
4.5 | 5.36% | 18.65 |
Correct Score
Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
0-0 | 13.39% | 7.47 |
0-1 | 5.45% | 18.35 |
0-2 | 1.11% | 90.15 |
0-3 | 0.15% | 664.39 |
1-0 | 21.47% | 4.66 |
1-1 | 8.74% | 11.44 |
1-2 | 1.78% | 56.21 |
1-3 | 0.24% | 414.27 |
2-0 | 17.22% | 5.81 |
2-1 | 7.01% | 14.27 |
2-2 | 1.43% | 70.10 |
2-3 | 0.19% | 516.63 |
3-0 | 9.20% | 10.87 |
3-1 | 3.75% | 26.69 |
3-2 | 0.76% | 131.14 |
3-3 | 0.10% | 966.43 |
Any Other Home Win | 7.92% | 12.62 |
Any Other Away Win | 0.06% | 1,667.98 |
Any Other Draw | 0.00% | 23,072.12 |