Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Milan is likely to win this match with a probability of 67.12%. A win for Monza has a probability of 10.82%, while a draw has a probability of 21.62%. The most likely scoreline for a Milan win is 0-1, with a probability of 17.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 with a probability of 15.34% and 0-3 with a probability of 9.21%. The most probable Monza win is 1-0 with a probability of 5.27%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 9.49%.
This match presents a compelling opportunity to bet on Milan to win. Bookmakers are offering average odds of 1.9, higher than our model’s predictions of 1.92 (based on goal statistics) and 1.62 (based on expected goals, or XG, which estimates the likelihood of scoring based on shot quality and location). This discrepancy suggests that bookmakers may be overvaluing the opponent, making Milan a potentially valuable bet.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based On Goals
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Monza | AC Milan | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 1.13 | 1.77 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 24.27% | 23.36% | 52.13% |
| Imp Odds | 4.12 | 4.28 | 1.92 |
Goals Over/Under Based On Goals
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 5.45% | 18.34 |
| 1.5 | 21.31% | 4.69 |
| 2.5 | 44.38% | 2.25 |
| 3.5 | 66.76% | 1.50 |
| 4.5 | 83.03% | 1.20 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 94.55% | 1.06 |
| 1.5 | 78.69% | 1.27 |
| 2.5 | 55.62% | 1.80 |
| 3.5 | 33.24% | 3.01 |
| 4.5 | 16.97% | 5.89 |
Correct Score Based On Goals
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 5.45% | 18.34 |
| 0-1 | 9.68% | 10.33 |
| 0-2 | 8.59% | 11.65 |
| 0-3 | 5.08% | 19.69 |
| 1-0 | 6.18% | 16.17 |
| 1-1 | 10.98% | 9.11 |
| 1-2 | 9.74% | 10.27 |
| 1-3 | 5.76% | 17.35 |
| 2-0 | 3.51% | 28.51 |
| 2-1 | 6.23% | 16.06 |
| 2-2 | 5.52% | 18.10 |
| 2-3 | 3.27% | 30.60 |
| 3-0 | 1.33% | 75.38 |
| 3-1 | 2.35% | 42.47 |
| 3-2 | 2.09% | 47.86 |
| 3-3 | 1.24% | 80.91 |
| Any Other Home Win | 2.58% | 38.69 |
| Any Other Away Win | 6.88% | 14.53 |
| Any Other Draw | 0.17% | 592.49 |
Full-time Result Based On XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Monza | AC Milan | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 1.19 | 2.31 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 18.38% | 19.09% | 61.85% |
| Imp Odds | 5.44 | 5.24 | 1.62 |
Goals Over/Under Based On XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 3.04% | 32.94 |
| 1.5 | 13.65% | 7.33 |
| 2.5 | 32.18% | 3.11 |
| 3.5 | 53.78% | 1.86 |
| 4.5 | 72.65% | 1.38 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 96.96% | 1.03 |
| 1.5 | 86.35% | 1.16 |
| 2.5 | 67.82% | 1.47 |
| 3.5 | 46.22% | 2.16 |
| 4.5 | 27.35% | 3.66 |
Correct Score Based On XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 32.94 | 3.04% |
| 0-1 | 14.26 | 7.01% |
| 0-2 | 12.35 | 8.10% |
| 0-3 | 16.05 | 6.23% |
| 1-0 | 27.79 | 3.60% |
| 1-1 | 12.03 | 8.31% |
| 1-2 | 10.42 | 9.60% |
| 1-3 | 13.54 | 7.39% |
| 2-0 | 46.89 | 2.13% |
| 2-1 | 20.30 | 4.93% |
| 2-2 | 17.58 | 5.69% |
| 2-3 | 22.84 | 4.38% |
| 3-0 | 118.66 | 0.84% |
| 3-1 | 51.39 | 1.95% |
| 3-2 | 44.50 | 2.25% |
| 3-3 | 57.81 | 1.73% |
| Any Other Home Win | 37.21 | 2.69% |
| Any Other Away Win | 7.36 | 13.59% |
| Any Other Draw | 302.18 | 0.33% |
Find your next winning bet: Our expert predictions for upcoming Serie A matches.