Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Barcelona is likely to win this match with a probability of 63.48%. A win for Celta Vigo has a probability of 16.38%, while a draw has a probability of 19.5%. The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win is “Any Other Away Win“, with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 with a probability of 9.87% and 0-2 with a probability of 9.74%. The most probable Celta Vigo win is 2-1 with a probability of 4.57%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 9.01%.
This match presents a compelling opportunity to bet on Barcelona to win. Bookmakers are offering average odds of 1.9, higher than our model’s predictions of 1.39 (based on goal statistics) and 1.58 (based on expected goals, or XG, which estimates the likelihood of scoring based on shot quality and location). This discrepancy suggests that bookmakers may be overvaluing the opponent, making Barcelona a potentially valuable bet.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based On XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Celta Vigo | Barcelona | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 1.01 | 2.19 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 16.38% | 19.50% | 63.48% |
| Imp Odds | 6.10 | 5.13 | 1.58 |
Goals Over/Under Based On XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 4.06% | 24.64 |
| 1.5 | 17.06% | 5.86 |
| 2.5 | 37.90% | 2.64 |
| 3.5 | 60.15% | 1.66 |
| 4.5 | 77.98% | 1.28 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 95.94% | 1.04 |
| 1.5 | 82.94% | 1.21 |
| 2.5 | 62.10% | 1.61 |
| 3.5 | 39.85% | 2.51 |
| 4.5 | 22.02% | 4.54 |
Correct Score Based On XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 24.64 | 4.06% |
| 0-1 | 11.25 | 8.89% |
| 0-2 | 10.27 | 9.74% |
| 0-3 | 14.06 | 7.11% |
| 1-0 | 24.31 | 4.11% |
| 1-1 | 11.10 | 9.01% |
| 1-2 | 10.13 | 9.87% |
| 1-3 | 13.87 | 7.21% |
| 2-0 | 47.95 | 2.09% |
| 2-1 | 21.89 | 4.57% |
| 2-2 | 19.98 | 5.00% |
| 2-3 | 27.37 | 3.65% |
| 3-0 | 141.89 | 0.70% |
| 3-1 | 64.77 | 1.54% |
| 3-2 | 59.13 | 1.69% |
| 3-3 | 80.98 | 1.23% |
| Any Other Home Win | 59.72 | 1.67% |
| Any Other Away Win | 8.98 | 11.13% |
| Any Other Draw | 532.93 | 0.19% |
Full-time Result Based On Goals
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Celta Vigo | Barcelona | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 0.59 | 2.09 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 9.17% | 18.29% | 71.75% |
| Imp Odds | 10.91 | 5.47 | 1.39 |
Goals Over/Under Based On Goals
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 6.90% | 14.50 |
| 1.5 | 25.34% | 3.95 |
| 2.5 | 49.99% | 2.00 |
| 3.5 | 71.97% | 1.39 |
| 4.5 | 86.67% | 1.15 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 93.10% | 1.07 |
| 1.5 | 74.66% | 1.34 |
| 2.5 | 50.01% | 2.00 |
| 3.5 | 28.03% | 3.57 |
| 4.5 | 13.33% | 7.50 |
Correct Score Based On Goals
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 6.90% | 14.50 |
| 0-1 | 14.40% | 6.94 |
| 0-2 | 15.04% | 6.65 |
| 0-3 | 10.47% | 9.55 |
| 1-0 | 4.04% | 24.76 |
| 1-1 | 8.43% | 11.86 |
| 1-2 | 8.81% | 11.35 |
| 1-3 | 6.13% | 16.31 |
| 2-0 | 1.18% | 84.57 |
| 2-1 | 2.47% | 40.49 |
| 2-2 | 2.58% | 38.77 |
| 2-3 | 1.80% | 55.69 |
| 3-0 | 0.23% | 433.24 |
| 3-1 | 0.48% | 207.42 |
| 3-2 | 0.50% | 198.61 |
| 3-3 | 0.35% | 285.26 |
| Any Other Home Win | 0.26% | 380.57 |
| Any Other Away Win | 7.01% | 14.26 |
| Any Other Draw | 0.03% | 3,551.48 |
Find your next winning bet: Our expert predictions for upcoming La Liga matches.