Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Frosinone is likely to win this match with a probability of 42.2%. A win for Torino has a probability of 29.47%, while a draw has a probability of 28.31%. The most likely scoreline for a Frosinone win is 1-0, with a probability of 13.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 with a probability of 8.29% and 2-0 with a probability of 8.25%. The most probable Torino win is 0-1 with a probability of 10.42%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 13.14%.
This match offers an excellent opportunity to bet on Frosinone’s win, with bookmakers offering average odds of 3.15, much higher than the 2.37 calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based on XG
Home Team | Away Team | ||
Frosinone | Torino | ||
Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
1.26 | 1.01 | ||
Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
%Chance | 42.20% | 28.31% | 29.47% |
Imp Odds | 2.37 | 3.53 | 3.39 |
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
Under Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 10.36% | 9.65 |
1.5 | 33.86% | 2.95 |
2.5 | 60.48% | 1.65 |
3.5 | 80.60% | 1.24 |
4.5 | 92.01% | 1.09 |
Over Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 89.64% | 1.12 |
1.5 | 66.14% | 1.51 |
2.5 | 39.52% | 2.53 |
3.5 | 19.40% | 5.16 |
4.5 | 7.99% | 12.51 |
Correct Score Based on XG
Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
0-0 | 9.65 | 10.36% |
0-1 | 9.60 | 10.42% |
0-2 | 19.10 | 5.24% |
0-3 | 57.01 | 1.75% |
1-0 | 7.65 | 13.08% |
1-1 | 7.61 | 13.14% |
1-2 | 15.14 | 6.61% |
1-3 | 45.18 | 2.21% |
2-0 | 12.12 | 8.25% |
2-1 | 12.06 | 8.29% |
2-2 | 24.00 | 4.17% |
2-3 | 71.62 | 1.40% |
3-0 | 28.82 | 3.47% |
3-1 | 28.68 | 3.49% |
3-2 | 57.06 | 1.75% |
3-3 | 170.29 | 0.59% |
Any Other Home Win | 25.80 | 3.88% |
Any Other Away Win | 75.78 | 1.32% |
Any Other Draw | 2,041.04 | 0.05% |