Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Monza is likely to win this match with a probability of 78.37%. A win for Genoa has a probability of 7.16%, while a draw has a probability of 14.35%. The most likely scoreline for a Monza win is 1-0, with a probability of 14.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 with a probability of 9.88% and 2-1 with a probability of 8.64%. The most probable Genoa win is 0-1 with a probability of 9.39%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 12.74%.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
XG
XG
Full-time Result Based on XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Monza | Genoa | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 1.36 | 0.87 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 48.03% | 27.80% | 24.16% |
| Imp Odds | 2.08 | 3.60 | 4.14 |
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 10.74% | 9.31 |
| 1.5 | 34.71% | 2.88 |
| 2.5 | 61.44% | 1.63 |
| 3.5 | 81.32% | 1.23 |
| 4.5 | 92.41% | 1.08 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 89.26% | 1.12 |
| 1.5 | 65.29% | 1.53 |
| 2.5 | 38.56% | 2.59 |
| 3.5 | 18.68% | 5.35 |
| 4.5 | 7.59% | 13.17 |
Correct Score Based on XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 9.31 | 10.74% |
| 0-1 | 10.65 | 9.39% |
| 0-2 | 24.35 | 4.11% |
| 0-3 | 83.52 | 1.20% |
| 1-0 | 6.86 | 14.57% |
| 1-1 | 7.85 | 12.74% |
| 1-2 | 17.95 | 5.57% |
| 1-3 | 61.57 | 1.62% |
| 2-0 | 10.12 | 9.88% |
| 2-1 | 11.57 | 8.64% |
| 2-2 | 26.46 | 3.78% |
| 2-3 | 90.77 | 1.10% |
| 3-0 | 22.38 | 4.47% |
| 3-1 | 25.59 | 3.91% |
| 3-2 | 58.51 | 1.71% |
| 3-3 | 200.72 | 0.50% |
| Any Other Home Win | 20.63 | 4.85% |
| Any Other Away Win | 116.75 | 0.86% |
| Any Other Draw | 2,580.50 | 0.04% |