Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Toulouse is likely to win this match with a probability of 46.98%. A win for Rennes has a probability of 22.32%, while a draw has a probability of 30.7%. The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win is 1-0, with a probability of 17.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 with a probability of 10.74% and 2-1 with a probability of 7.46%. The most probable Rennes win is 0-1 with a probability of 10.76%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 0-0 with a probability of 15.11%.
This match offers an excellent opportunity to bet on Toulouse’s win, with bookmakers offering average odds of 3.3, much higher than the 2.13 calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based on XG
Home Team | Away Team | ||
Toulouse | Rennes | ||
Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
1.18 | 0.71 | ||
Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
%Chance | 46.98% | 30.70% | 22.32% |
Imp Odds | 2.13 | 3.26 | 4.48 |
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
Under Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 15.11% | 6.62 |
1.5 | 43.66% | 2.29 |
2.5 | 70.64% | 1.42 |
3.5 | 87.64% | 1.14 |
4.5 | 95.67% | 1.05 |
Over Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 84.89% | 1.18 |
1.5 | 56.34% | 1.77 |
2.5 | 29.36% | 3.41 |
3.5 | 12.36% | 8.09 |
4.5 | 4.33% | 23.10 |
Correct Score Based on XG
Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
0-0 | 6.62 | 15.11% |
0-1 | 9.29 | 10.76% |
0-2 | 26.08 | 3.83% |
0-3 | 109.83 | 0.91% |
1-0 | 5.62 | 17.79% |
1-1 | 7.89 | 12.67% |
1-2 | 22.15 | 4.51% |
1-3 | 93.26 | 1.07% |
2-0 | 9.55 | 10.47% |
2-1 | 13.40 | 7.46% |
2-2 | 37.62 | 2.66% |
2-3 | 158.39 | 0.63% |
3-0 | 24.32 | 4.11% |
3-1 | 34.14 | 2.93% |
3-2 | 95.83 | 1.04% |
3-3 | 403.50 | 0.25% |
Any Other Home Win | 31.54 | 3.17% |
Any Other Away Win | 246.43 | 0.41% |
Any Other Draw | 7,439.03 | 0.01% |