Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Newcastle United is likely to win this match with a probability of 58.1%. A win for Luton has a probability of 21.52%, while a draw has a probability of 19.83%. The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win is “Any Other Away Win“, with a probability of 13.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 with a probability of 9.42% and 0-2 with a probability of 7.18%. The most probable Luton win is 2-1 with a probability of 5.49%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 8.36%.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
By XG
By Goals
By XG
Full-time Result Based on XG
Home Team | Away Team | ||
Luton | Newcastle United | ||
Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
1.31 | 2.25 | ||
Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
%Chance | 21.52% | 19.83% | 58.10% |
Imp Odds | 4.65 | 5.04 | 1.72 |
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
Under Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 2.83% | 35.34 |
1.5 | 12.92% | 7.74 |
2.5 | 30.90% | 3.24 |
3.5 | 52.27% | 1.91 |
4.5 | 71.31% | 1.40 |
Over Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 97.17% | 1.03 |
1.5 | 87.08% | 1.15 |
2.5 | 69.10% | 1.45 |
3.5 | 47.73% | 2.10 |
4.5 | 28.69% | 3.49 |
Correct Score Based on XG
Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
0-0 | 35.34 | 2.83% |
0-1 | 15.68 | 6.38% |
0-2 | 13.92 | 7.18% |
0-3 | 18.54 | 5.39% |
1-0 | 26.93 | 3.71% |
1-1 | 11.96 | 8.36% |
1-2 | 10.61 | 9.42% |
1-3 | 14.13 | 7.08% |
2-0 | 41.06 | 2.44% |
2-1 | 18.22 | 5.49% |
2-2 | 16.18 | 6.18% |
2-3 | 21.54 | 4.64% |
3-0 | 93.89 | 1.07% |
3-1 | 41.67 | 2.40% |
3-2 | 36.99 | 2.70% |
3-3 | 49.26 | 2.03% |
Any Other Home Win | 26.88 | 3.72% |
Any Other Away Win | 7.48 | 13.37% |
Any Other Draw | 236.27 | 0.42% |
By Goals
Full-time Result
Home Team | Away Team | ||
Luton | Newcastle United | ||
Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
1.53 | 2.28 | ||
Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
%Chance | 25.58% | 19.97% | 53.98% |
Imp Odds | 3.91 | 5.01 | 1.85 |
Goals Over/Under
Under Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 2.22% | 45.09 |
1.5 | 10.67% | 9.38 |
2.5 | 26.75% | 3.74 |
3.5 | 47.17% | 2.12 |
4.5 | 66.62% | 1.50 |
Over Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 97.78% | 1.02 |
1.5 | 89.33% | 1.12 |
2.5 | 73.25% | 1.37 |
3.5 | 52.83% | 1.89 |
4.5 | 33.38% | 3.00 |
Correct Score
Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
0-0 | 2.22% | 45.09 |
0-1 | 5.05% | 19.80 |
0-2 | 5.75% | 17.40 |
0-3 | 4.36% | 22.92 |
1-0 | 3.40% | 29.43 |
1-1 | 7.74% | 12.93 |
1-2 | 8.81% | 11.36 |
1-3 | 6.68% | 14.96 |
2-0 | 2.60% | 38.43 |
2-1 | 5.92% | 16.88 |
2-2 | 6.74% | 14.83 |
2-3 | 5.12% | 19.54 |
3-0 | 1.33% | 75.26 |
3-1 | 3.03% | 33.06 |
3-2 | 3.44% | 29.04 |
3-3 | 2.61% | 38.26 |
Any Other Home Win | 5.86% | 17.06 |
Any Other Away Win | 14.40% | 6.95 |
Any Other Draw | 0.66% | 152.11 |