Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Aston Villa is likely to win this match with a probability of 79.04%. A win for Burnley has a probability of 6.15%, while a draw has a probability of 14.73%. The most likely scoreline for a Aston Villa win is “Any Other Home Win“, with a probability of 21.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 with a probability of 15.89% and 3-0 with a probability of 12.53%. The most probable Burnley win is 0-1 with a probability of 2.86%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 6.75%.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
By XG
By XG
Full-time Result Based on XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Aston Villa | Burnley | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 2.37 | 0.50 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 79.04% | 14.73% | 6.15% |
| Imp Odds | 1.27 | 6.79 | 16.25 |
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 5.68% | 17.61 |
| 1.5 | 21.97% | 4.55 |
| 2.5 | 45.33% | 2.21 |
| 3.5 | 67.67% | 1.48 |
| 4.5 | 83.69% | 1.19 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 94.32% | 1.06 |
| 1.5 | 78.03% | 1.28 |
| 2.5 | 54.67% | 1.83 |
| 3.5 | 32.33% | 3.09 |
| 4.5 | 16.31% | 6.13 |
Correct Score Based on XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 17.61 | 5.68% |
| 0-1 | 35.03 | 2.86% |
| 0-2 | 139.36 | 0.72% |
| 0-3 | 831.69 | 0.12% |
| 1-0 | 7.44 | 13.44% |
| 1-1 | 14.81 | 6.75% |
| 1-2 | 58.91 | 1.70% |
| 1-3 | 351.58 | 0.28% |
| 2-0 | 6.29 | 15.89% |
| 2-1 | 12.52 | 7.99% |
| 2-2 | 49.81 | 2.01% |
| 2-3 | 297.25 | 0.34% |
| 3-0 | 7.98 | 12.53% |
| 3-1 | 15.88 | 6.30% |
| 3-2 | 63.16 | 1.58% |
| 3-3 | 376.97 | 0.27% |
| Any Other Home Win | 4.69 | 21.31% |
| Any Other Away Win | 794.85 | 0.13% |
| Any Other Draw | 4,834.56 | 0.02% |