Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Chelsea is likely to win this match with a probability of 62.98%. A win for Luton has a probability of 17.81%, while a draw has a probability of 18.45%. The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win is “Any Other Away Win“, with a probability of 15.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 with a probability of 9.42% and 0-2 with a probability of 7.78%. The most probable Luton win is 2-1 with a probability of 4.74%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 7.84%.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
By XG
By Goals
By XG
Full-time Result Based on XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Luton | Chelsea | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 1.21 | 2.40 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 17.81% | 18.45% | 62.98% |
| Imp Odds | 5.62 | 5.42 | 1.59 |
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 2.69% | 37.16 |
| 1.5 | 12.42% | 8.05 |
| 2.5 | 30.00% | 3.33 |
| 3.5 | 51.20% | 1.95 |
| 4.5 | 70.35% | 1.42 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 97.31% | 1.03 |
| 1.5 | 87.58% | 1.14 |
| 2.5 | 70.00% | 1.43 |
| 3.5 | 48.80% | 2.05 |
| 4.5 | 29.65% | 3.37 |
Correct Score Based on XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 37.16 | 2.69% |
| 0-1 | 15.46 | 6.47% |
| 0-2 | 12.86 | 7.78% |
| 0-3 | 16.05 | 6.23% |
| 1-0 | 30.69 | 3.26% |
| 1-1 | 12.76 | 7.84% |
| 1-2 | 10.62 | 9.42% |
| 1-3 | 13.25 | 7.55% |
| 2-0 | 50.67 | 1.97% |
| 2-1 | 21.08 | 4.74% |
| 2-2 | 17.53 | 5.70% |
| 2-3 | 21.88 | 4.57% |
| 3-0 | 125.51 | 0.80% |
| 3-1 | 52.20 | 1.92% |
| 3-2 | 43.43 | 2.30% |
| 3-3 | 54.19 | 1.85% |
| Any Other Home Win | 35.54 | 2.81% |
| Any Other Away Win | 6.65 | 15.05% |
| Any Other Draw | 264.32 | 0.38% |
By Goals
Full-time Result
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Luton | Chelsea | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 1.18 | 1.76 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 25.65% | 23.46% | 50.66% |
| Imp Odds | 3.90 | 4.26 | 1.97 |
Goals Over/Under
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 5.26% | 19.00 |
| 1.5 | 20.76% | 4.82 |
| 2.5 | 43.57% | 2.30 |
| 3.5 | 65.96% | 1.52 |
| 4.5 | 82.45% | 1.21 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 94.74% | 1.06 |
| 1.5 | 79.24% | 1.26 |
| 2.5 | 56.43% | 1.77 |
| 3.5 | 34.04% | 2.94 |
| 4.5 | 17.55% | 5.70 |
Correct Score
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 5.26% | 19.00 |
| 0-1 | 9.26% | 10.79 |
| 0-2 | 8.15% | 12.26 |
| 0-3 | 4.79% | 20.90 |
| 1-0 | 6.23% | 16.05 |
| 1-1 | 10.97% | 9.12 |
| 1-2 | 9.66% | 10.36 |
| 1-3 | 5.67% | 17.65 |
| 2-0 | 3.69% | 27.11 |
| 2-1 | 6.49% | 15.40 |
| 2-2 | 5.72% | 17.49 |
| 2-3 | 3.36% | 29.81 |
| 3-0 | 1.46% | 68.68 |
| 3-1 | 2.56% | 39.01 |
| 3-2 | 2.26% | 44.31 |
| 3-3 | 1.32% | 75.51 |
| Any Other Home Win | 2.96% | 33.76 |
| Any Other Away Win | 6.86% | 14.57 |
| Any Other Draw | 0.19% | 532.47 |