Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Manchester City is likely to win this match with a probability of 42.73%. A win for Newcastle has a probability of 35%, while a draw has a probability of 22.09%. The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win is “Any Other Away Win“, with a probability of 8.83%. The next most likely scoreline for that outcome is 1-2 with a probability of 8.48%. The most probable Newcastle win is “Any Other Home Win” with a probability of 8.01%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 9.12%.
This match presents an excellent opportunity to consider betting on Newcastle not to lose, as bookmakers are offering average odds of 1.6 for Manchester City’s win, which is lower than the 2.34 calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based on XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 1.67 | 1.86 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 35.00% | 22.09% | 42.73% |
| Imp Odds | 2.86 | 4.53 | 2.34 |
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 2.94% | 34.01 |
| 1.5 | 13.31% | 7.51 |
| 2.5 | 31.60% | 3.17 |
| 3.5 | 53.09% | 1.88 |
| 4.5 | 72.04% | 1.39 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 97.06% | 1.03 |
| 1.5 | 86.69% | 1.15 |
| 2.5 | 68.40% | 1.46 |
| 3.5 | 46.91% | 2.13 |
| 4.5 | 27.96% | 3.58 |
Correct Score Based on XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 34.01 | 2.94% |
| 0-1 | 18.28 | 5.47% |
| 0-2 | 19.66 | 5.09% |
| 0-3 | 31.71 | 3.15% |
| 1-0 | 20.41 | 4.90% |
| 1-1 | 10.97 | 9.12% |
| 1-2 | 11.80 | 8.48% |
| 1-3 | 19.03 | 5.26% |
| 2-0 | 24.49 | 4.08% |
| 2-1 | 13.17 | 7.60% |
| 2-2 | 14.16 | 7.06% |
| 2-3 | 22.83 | 4.38% |
| 3-0 | 44.08 | 2.27% |
| 3-1 | 23.70 | 4.22% |
| 3-2 | 25.48 | 3.92% |
| 3-3 | 41.10 | 2.43% |
| Any Other Home Win | 12.49 | 8.01% |
| Any Other Away Win | 11.32 | 8.83% |
| Any Other Draw | 186.85 | 0.54% |