Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Milan will likely win this match with a probability of 41.57%. A win for Roma has a probability of 32.16%, while a draw has a probability of 26.23%. The most likely scoreline for a Milan win is 1-0, with a probability of 10.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 with a probability of 8.74% and 2-0 with a probability of 7.28%. The most probable Roma win is 0-1 with a probability of 8.91%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 12.48%.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
By XG
By XG
Full-time Result Based On XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| AC Milan | Roma | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 1.40 | 1.20 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 41.57% | 26.23% | 32.16% |
| Imp Odds | 2.41 | 3.81 | 3.11 |
Goals Over/Under Based On XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 7.43% | 13.46 |
| 1.5 | 26.74% | 3.74 |
| 2.5 | 51.84% | 1.93 |
| 3.5 | 73.60% | 1.36 |
| 4.5 | 87.74% | 1.14 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 92.57% | 1.08 |
| 1.5 | 73.26% | 1.36 |
| 2.5 | 48.16% | 2.08 |
| 3.5 | 26.40% | 3.79 |
| 4.5 | 12.26% | 8.16 |
Correct Score Based On XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 13.46 | 7.43% |
| 0-1 | 11.22 | 8.91% |
| 0-2 | 18.71 | 5.35% |
| 0-3 | 46.78 | 2.14% |
| 1-0 | 9.61 | 10.40% |
| 1-1 | 8.01 | 12.48% |
| 1-2 | 13.36 | 7.48% |
| 1-3 | 33.41 | 2.99% |
| 2-0 | 13.73 | 7.28% |
| 2-1 | 11.45 | 8.74% |
| 2-2 | 19.08 | 5.24% |
| 2-3 | 47.72 | 2.10% |
| 3-0 | 29.42 | 3.40% |
| 3-1 | 24.53 | 4.08% |
| 3-2 | 40.89 | 2.45% |
| 3-3 | 102.24 | 0.98% |
| Any Other Home Win | 19.12 | 5.23% |
| Any Other Away Win | 41.79 | 2.39% |
| Any Other Draw | 909.72 | 0.11% |