Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Borussia Dortmund is likely to win this match with a probability of 68.8%. A win for Cologne has a probability of 13.83%, while a draw has a probability of 16.16%. The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win is “Any Other Away Win“, with a probability of 18.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 with a probability of 9.01% and 1-3 with a probability of 8.02%. The most probable Cologne win is 2-1 with a probability of 3.82%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 6.75%.
This match presents an excellent opportunity to consider betting on Borussia Dortmund to win the match, as bookmakers are offering average odds of 1.77 for Borussia Dortmund’s win, which is higher than the 1.45 calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based on XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| FC Cologne | Borussia Dortmund | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 1.13 | 2.67 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 13.83% | 16.16% | 68.80% |
| Imp Odds | 7.23 | 6.19 | 1.45 |
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 2.23% | 44.81 |
| 1.5 | 10.72% | 9.33 |
| 2.5 | 26.85% | 3.72 |
| 3.5 | 47.30% | 2.11 |
| 4.5 | 66.74% | 1.50 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 97.77% | 1.02 |
| 1.5 | 89.28% | 1.12 |
| 2.5 | 73.15% | 1.37 |
| 3.5 | 52.70% | 1.90 |
| 4.5 | 33.26% | 3.01 |
Correct Score Based on XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 44.81 | 2.23% |
| 0-1 | 16.78 | 5.96% |
| 0-2 | 12.57 | 7.95% |
| 0-3 | 14.13 | 7.08% |
| 1-0 | 39.56 | 2.53% |
| 1-1 | 14.82 | 6.75% |
| 1-2 | 11.10 | 9.01% |
| 1-3 | 12.47 | 8.02% |
| 2-0 | 69.85 | 1.43% |
| 2-1 | 26.16 | 3.82% |
| 2-2 | 19.60 | 5.10% |
| 2-3 | 22.03 | 4.54% |
| 3-0 | 185.00 | 0.54% |
| 3-1 | 69.29 | 1.44% |
| 3-2 | 51.91 | 1.93% |
| 3-3 | 58.33 | 1.71% |
| Any Other Home Win | 46.87 | 2.13% |
| Any Other Away Win | 5.45 | 18.34% |
| Any Other Draw | 272.71 | 0.37% |
Full-time Result
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| FC Cologne | Borussia Dortmund | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 0.63 | 2.14 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 9.58% | 18.04% | 71.54% |
| Imp Odds | 10.44 | 5.54 | 1.40 |
Goals Over/Under
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 6.30% | 15.87 |
| 1.5 | 23.72% | 4.22 |
| 2.5 | 47.80% | 2.09 |
| 3.5 | 69.98% | 1.43 |
| 4.5 | 85.32% | 1.17 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 93.70% | 1.07 |
| 1.5 | 76.28% | 1.31 |
| 2.5 | 52.20% | 1.92 |
| 3.5 | 30.02% | 3.33 |
| 4.5 | 14.68% | 6.81 |
Correct Score
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 6.30% | 15.87 |
| 0-1 | 13.47% | 7.43 |
| 0-2 | 14.39% | 6.95 |
| 0-3 | 10.25% | 9.76 |
| 1-0 | 3.95% | 25.29 |
| 1-1 | 8.45% | 11.84 |
| 1-2 | 9.03% | 11.08 |
| 1-3 | 6.43% | 15.55 |
| 2-0 | 1.24% | 80.62 |
| 2-1 | 2.65% | 37.73 |
| 2-2 | 2.83% | 35.31 |
| 2-3 | 2.02% | 49.57 |
| 3-0 | 0.26% | 385.45 |
| 3-1 | 0.55% | 180.37 |
| 3-2 | 0.59% | 168.81 |
| 3-3 | 0.42% | 236.98 |
| Any Other Home Win | 0.33% | 301.14 |
| Any Other Away Win | 7.79% | 12.84 |
| Any Other Draw | 0.04% | 2,678.59 |