Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Frosinone will likely win this match with a probability of 49.11%. A win for Cagliari has a probability of 26.16%, while a draw has a probability of 24.71%. The most likely scoreline for a Frosinone win is 1-0, with a probability of 10.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 with a probability of 9.49% and 2-0 with a probability of 8.53%. The most probable Cagliari win is 0-1 with a probability of 7.24%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 11.73%.
This match presents an excellent opportunity to consider betting on Frosinone to win the match, as bookmakers are offering average odds of 2.4 for Frosinone’s win, which is higher than the 2.04 calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based On XG
Home Team | Away Team | ||
Frosinone | Cagliari | ||
Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
1.62 | 1.11 | ||
Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
%Chance | 49.11% | 24.71% | 26.16% |
Imp Odds | 2.04 | 4.05 | 3.82 |
Goals Over/Under Based On XG
Under Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 6.51% | 15.37 |
1.5 | 24.29% | 4.12 |
2.5 | 48.58% | 2.06 |
3.5 | 70.70% | 1.41 |
4.5 | 85.81% | 1.17 |
Over Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 93.49% | 1.07 |
1.5 | 75.71% | 1.32 |
2.5 | 51.42% | 1.94 |
3.5 | 29.30% | 3.41 |
4.5 | 14.19% | 7.05 |
Correct Score Based On XG
Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
0-0 | 15.37 | 6.51% |
0-1 | 13.80 | 7.24% |
0-2 | 24.80 | 4.03% |
0-3 | 66.82 | 1.50% |
1-0 | 9.49 | 10.54% |
1-1 | 8.53 | 11.73% |
1-2 | 15.32 | 6.53% |
1-3 | 41.28 | 2.42% |
2-0 | 11.73 | 8.53% |
2-1 | 10.53 | 9.49% |
2-2 | 18.92 | 5.28% |
2-3 | 50.99 | 1.96% |
3-0 | 21.73 | 4.60% |
3-1 | 19.52 | 5.12% |
3-2 | 35.06 | 2.85% |
3-3 | 94.49 | 1.06% |
Any Other Home Win | 12.54 | 7.98% |
Any Other Away Win | 51.02 | 1.96% |
Any Other Draw | 779.68 | 0.13% |