Brest vs Marseille

Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Brest is likely to win this match with a probability of 52.05%. A win for Marseille has a probability of 22.37%, while a draw has a probability of 25.57%. The most likely scoreline for a Brest win is 1-0, with a probability of 13.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 with a probability of 10.17% and 2-1 with a probability of 9.35%. The most probable Marseille win is 0-1 with a probability of 7.78%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 12.06%.

This match presents a compelling opportunity to bet on Brest to win. Bookmakers are offering average odds of 2.6, higher than our model’s predictions of 1.47 (based on goal statistics) and 1.92 (based on expected goals, or XG, which estimates the likelihood of scoring based on shot quality and location). This discrepancy suggests that bookmakers may be overvaluing the opponent, making Brest a potentially valuable underdog bet.

The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.