Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Rennes is likely to win this match with a probability of 68.45%. A win for Clermont Foot has a probability of 14.35%, while a draw has a probability of 19.15%. The most likely scoreline for a Rennes win is “Any Other Away Win“, with a probability of 17.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 with a probability of 10.9% and 1-0 with a probability of 10%. The most probable Clermont Foot win is 0-1 with a probability of 4.14%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 4.59%.
This match presents a compelling opportunity to bet on Rennes to win. Bookmakers are offering average odds of 1.55, higher than our model’s predictions of 1.49 (based on goal statistics) and 1.5 (based on expected goals, or XG, which estimates the likelihood of scoring based on shot quality and location). This discrepancy suggests that bookmakers may be overvaluing the opponent, making Rennes a potentially valuable bet.
This match also offers an opportunity for betting on total goals over 2.5, given that the average projected goals calculated by our model stand at 3.6 (based on goal statistics) and 3.08 (based on XG).
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based On XG
Home Team | Away Team | ||
Rennes | Clermont Foot | ||
Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
2.18 | 0.90 | ||
Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
%Chance | 66.45% | 19.15% | 14.35% |
Imp Odds | 1.50 | 5.22 | 6.97 |
Goals Over/Under Based On XG
Under Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 4.59% | 21.78 |
1.5 | 18.74% | 5.34 |
2.5 | 40.53% | 2.47 |
3.5 | 62.91% | 1.59 |
4.5 | 80.15% | 1.25 |
Over Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 95.41% | 1.05 |
1.5 | 81.26% | 1.23 |
2.5 | 59.47% | 1.68 |
3.5 | 37.09% | 2.70 |
4.5 | 19.85% | 5.04 |
Correct Score Based On XG
Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
0-0 | 21.78 | 4.59% |
0-1 | 24.14 | 4.14% |
0-2 | 53.49 | 1.87% |
0-3 | 177.83 | 0.56% |
1-0 | 10.00 | 10.00% |
1-1 | 11.08 | 9.03% |
1-2 | 24.55 | 4.07% |
1-3 | 81.62 | 1.23% |
2-0 | 9.18 | 10.90% |
2-1 | 10.17 | 9.83% |
2-2 | 22.54 | 4.44% |
2-3 | 74.93 | 1.33% |
3-0 | 12.64 | 7.91% |
3-1 | 14.00 | 7.14% |
3-2 | 31.04 | 3.22% |
3-3 | 103.18 | 0.97% |
Any Other Home Win | 5.73 | 17.45% |
Any Other Away Win | 100.87 | 0.99% |
Any Other Draw | 775.30 | 0.13% |
Full-time Result Based On Goals
Home Team | Away Team | ||
Rennes | Clermont Foot | ||
Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
2.51 | 1.13 | ||
Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
%Chance | 67.13% | 17.40% | 15.36% |
Imp Odds | 1.49 | 5.75 | 6.51 |
Goals Over/Under Based On Goals
Under Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 2.63% | 38.05 |
1.5 | 12.19% | 8.20 |
2.5 | 29.59% | 3.38 |
3.5 | 50.70% | 1.97 |
4.5 | 69.90% | 1.43 |
Over Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 97.37% | 1.03 |
1.5 | 87.81% | 1.14 |
2.5 | 70.41% | 1.42 |
3.5 | 49.30% | 2.03 |
4.5 | 30.10% | 3.32 |
Correct Score Based On Goals
Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
0-0 | 2.63% | 38.05 |
0-1 | 2.98% | 33.57 |
0-2 | 1.69% | 59.24 |
0-3 | 0.64% | 156.80 |
1-0 | 6.58% | 15.19 |
1-1 | 7.46% | 13.40 |
1-2 | 4.23% | 23.64 |
1-3 | 1.60% | 62.58 |
2-0 | 8.25% | 12.12 |
2-1 | 9.35% | 10.70 |
2-2 | 5.30% | 18.87 |
2-3 | 2.00% | 49.96 |
3-0 | 6.89% | 14.52 |
3-1 | 7.81% | 12.81 |
3-2 | 4.42% | 22.60 |
3-3 | 1.67% | 59.82 |
Any Other Home Win | 23.82% | 4.20 |
Any Other Away Wins | 2.00% | 50.04 |
Any Other Draw | 0.33% | 300.10 |