Newcastle United vs Bournemouth

Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Newcastle is likely to win this match with a probability of 61.53%. A win for Bournemouth has a probability of 20.74%, while a draw has a probability of 17.51%. The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle win is “Any Other Home Win“, with a probability of 26.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 with a probability of 8.06% and 3-1 with a probability of 7.23%. The most probable Bournemouth win is 1-2 with a probability of 4.66%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 2-2 with a probability of 6.27%.

This match presents a compelling opportunity to bet on Newcastle to win. Bookmakers are offering average odds of 1.75, higher than our model’s predictions of 1.37 (based on goal statistics) and 1.63 (based on expected goals, or XG, which estimates the likelihood of scoring based on shot quality and location). This discrepancy suggests that bookmakers may be overvaluing the opponent, making Newcastle a potentially valuable underdog bet.

This match also offers an opportunity for betting on both team to score for 1.51.

The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.