Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Monaco is likely to win this match with a probability of 54.4%. A win for Rennes has a probability of 26.32%, while a draw has a probability of 18.67%. The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win is “Any Other Away Win“, with a probability of 19.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 with a probability of 7.68% and 1-3 with a probability of 6.52%. The most probable Rennes win is “Any Other Home Win” with a probability of 8.22%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 2-2 with a probability of 6.77%.
This match offers an excellent opportunity to bet on Monaco’s win, with bookmakers offering average odds of 2.7, much higher than the 1.84 calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based on XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Rennes | Monaco | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 1.76 | 2.55 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 26.32% | 18.67% | 54.40% |
| Imp Odds | 3.80 | 5.36 | 1.84 |
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 1.34% | 74.47 |
| 1.5 | 7.13% | 14.02 |
| 2.5 | 19.61% | 5.10 |
| 3.5 | 37.53% | 2.66 |
| 4.5 | 56.84% | 1.76 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 98.66% | 1.01 |
| 1.5 | 92.87% | 1.08 |
| 2.5 | 80.39% | 1.24 |
| 3.5 | 62.47% | 1.60 |
| 4.5 | 43.16% | 2.32 |
Correct Score Based on XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 74.47 | 1.34% |
| 0-1 | 29.24 | 3.42% |
| 0-2 | 22.95 | 4.36% |
| 0-3 | 27.03 | 3.70% |
| 1-0 | 42.24 | 2.37% |
| 1-1 | 16.58 | 6.03% |
| 1-2 | 13.02 | 7.68% |
| 1-3 | 15.33 | 6.52% |
| 2-0 | 47.92 | 2.09% |
| 2-1 | 18.81 | 5.32% |
| 2-2 | 14.77 | 6.77% |
| 2-3 | 17.39 | 5.75% |
| 3-0 | 81.53 | 1.23% |
| 3-1 | 32.01 | 3.12% |
| 3-2 | 25.13 | 3.98% |
| 3-3 | 29.59 | 3.38% |
| Any Other Home Win | 12.17 | 8.22% |
| Any Other Away Win | 5.22 | 19.14% |
| Any Other Draw | 87.55 | 1.14% |