Our analysis of all available data, including XG, recent performances, and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Aston Villa win with a probability of 61.13%. A win for Brighton has a probability of 19.08% and a draw has a probability of 19.73%. The most likely scoreline for a Aston Villa win is “Any Other Home Win” with a probability of 18.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 with a probability of 9.72% and 2-0 with a probability of 8.31%. The likeliest Brighton win is 1-2 with a probability of 5.13%, while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (8.74%).
This match is interesting for betting on the home team (Aston Villa), as the average odds for a win offered by bookmakers are higher than what our model calculates, with odds at 1.64 compared to around 2.5.
Check out free Premier League predictions on other matches.
Match Result Market
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Aston Villa | Brighton | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 2.22 | 1.17 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 61.13% | 19.73% | 19.08% |
| Imp Odds | 1.64 | 5.07 | 5.24 |
Over and Under Market
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 3.36% | 29.73 |
| 1.5 | 14.77% | 6.77 |
| 2.5 | 34.13% | 2.93 |
| 3.5 | 56.01% | 1.79 |
| 4.5 | 74.56% | 1.34 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 96.64% | 1.03 |
| 1.5 | 85.23% | 1.17 |
| 2.5 | 65.87% | 1.52 |
| 3.5 | 43.99% | 2.27 |
| 4.5 | 25.44% | 3.93 |
Correct Score Market
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 3.36% | 29.73 |
| 0-1 | 3.94% | 25.41 |
| 0-2 | 2.30% | 43.44 |
| 0-3 | 0.90% | 111.40 |
| 1-0 | 7.47% | 13.38 |
| 1-1 | 8.74% | 11.44 |
| 1-2 | 5.12% | 19.55 |
| 1-3 | 1.99% | 50.13 |
| 2-0 | 8.31% | 12.04 |
| 2-1 | 9.72% | 10.29 |
| 2-2 | 5.68% | 17.59 |
| 2-3 | 2.22% | 45.12 |
| 3-0 | 6.15% | 16.25 |
| 3-1 | 7.20% | 13.89 |
| 3-2 | 4.21% | 23.75 |
| 3-3 | 1.64% | 60.91 |
| Any Other Home Win | 18.07% | 5.53 |
| Any Other Away Win | 2.29% | 43.68 |
| Any Other Draw | 0.30% | 337.11 |
Match Result Market By XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Aston Villa | Brighton | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 2.65 | 1.42 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 63.55% | 17.39% | 18.87% |
| Imp Odds | 1.57 | 5.75 | 5.30 |
Over and Under Market By XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 1.69% | 59.00 |
| 1.5 | 8.61% | 11.62 |
| 2.5 | 22.70% | 4.41 |
| 3.5 | 41.85% | 2.39 |
| 4.5 | 61.37% | 1.63 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 98.31% | 1.02 |
| 1.5 | 91.39% | 1.09 |
| 2.5 | 77.30% | 1.29 |
| 3.5 | 58.15% | 1.72 |
| 4.5 | 38.63% | 2.59 |
Correct Score Market By XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 59.00 | 1.69% |
| 0-1 | 41.43 | 2.41% |
| 0-2 | 58.18 | 1.72% |
| 0-3 | 122.54 | 0.82% |
| 1-0 | 22.24 | 4.50% |
| 1-1 | 15.61 | 6.40% |
| 1-2 | 21.93 | 4.56% |
| 1-3 | 46.18 | 2.17% |
| 2-0 | 16.76 | 5.97% |
| 2-1 | 11.77 | 8.50% |
| 2-2 | 16.53 | 6.05% |
| 2-3 | 34.81 | 2.87% |
| 3-0 | 18.95 | 5.28% |
| 3-1 | 13.31 | 7.52% |
| 3-2 | 18.69 | 5.35% |
| 3-3 | 39.36 | 2.54% |
| Any Other Home Win | 3.78 | 26.44% |
| Any Other Away Win | 25.36 | 3.94% |
| Any Other Draw | 142.63 | 0.70% |