Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Aston Villa is likely to win this match with a probability of 61.27%. A win for Manchester United has a probability of 18.34%, while a draw has a probability of 20.35%. The most likely scoreline for a Aston Villa win is “Any Other Home Win“, with a probability of 16.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 with a probability of 9.9% and 2-0 with a probability of 9.26%. The most probable Manchester United win is 1-2 with a probability of 5.01%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 9.37%.
This match presents an excellent opportunity to consider betting on Aston Villa to win the match, as bookmakers are offering average odds of Aston Villa for Juventus’s win, which is higher than the 1.63 calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based On XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Aston Villa | Manchester United | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 2.11 | 1.07 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 61.27% | 20.35% | 18.34% |
| Imp Odds | 1.63 | 4.91 | 5.45 |
Goals Over/Under Based On XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 4.14% | 24.13 |
| 1.5 | 17.34% | 5.77 |
| 2.5 | 38.34% | 2.61 |
| 3.5 | 60.62% | 1.65 |
| 4.5 | 78.36% | 1.28 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 95.86% | 1.04 |
| 1.5 | 82.66% | 1.21 |
| 2.5 | 61.66% | 1.62 |
| 3.5 | 39.38% | 2.54 |
| 4.5 | 21.64% | 4.62 |
Correct Score Based On XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 24.13 | 4.14% |
| 0-1 | 22.56 | 4.43% |
| 0-2 | 42.19 | 2.37% |
| 0-3 | 118.36 | 0.84% |
| 1-0 | 11.41 | 8.76% |
| 1-1 | 10.67 | 9.37% |
| 1-2 | 19.96 | 5.01% |
| 1-3 | 55.99 | 1.79% |
| 2-0 | 10.80 | 9.26% |
| 2-1 | 10.10 | 9.90% |
| 2-2 | 18.88 | 5.30% |
| 2-3 | 52.97 | 1.89% |
| 3-0 | 15.32 | 6.53% |
| 3-1 | 14.33 | 6.98% |
| 3-2 | 26.80 | 3.73% |
| 3-3 | 75.18 | 1.33% |
| Any Other Home Win | 6.21 | 16.11% |
| Any Other Away Win | 57.60 | 1.74% |
| Any Other Draw | 485.31 | 0.21% |
Full-time Result
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Aston Villa | Manchester United | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 1.94 | 0.84 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 63.18% | 21.28% | 15.52% |
| Imp Odds | 1.58 | 4.70 | 6.44 |
Goals Over/Under
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 6.24% | 16.02 |
| 1.5 | 23.55% | 4.25 |
| 2.5 | 47.57% | 2.10 |
| 3.5 | 69.77% | 1.43 |
| 4.5 | 85.17% | 1.17 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 93.76% | 1.07 |
| 1.5 | 76.45% | 1.31 |
| 2.5 | 52.43% | 1.91 |
| 3.5 | 30.23% | 3.31 |
| 4.5 | 14.83% | 6.74 |
Correct Score
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 6.24% | 16.02 |
| 0-1 | 5.23% | 19.14 |
| 0-2 | 2.19% | 45.71 |
| 0-3 | 0.61% | 163.78 |
| 1-0 | 12.09% | 8.27 |
| 1-1 | 10.12% | 9.88 |
| 1-2 | 4.24% | 23.60 |
| 1-3 | 1.18% | 84.56 |
| 2-0 | 11.70% | 8.54 |
| 2-1 | 9.80% | 10.20 |
| 2-2 | 4.10% | 24.37 |
| 2-3 | 1.15% | 87.32 |
| 3-0 | 7.56% | 13.23 |
| 3-1 | 6.33% | 15.81 |
| 3-2 | 2.65% | 37.75 |
| 3-3 | 0.74% | 135.26 |
| Any Other Home Win | 13.05% | 7.66 |
| Any Other Away Win | 0.78% | 127.90 |
| Any Other Draw | 0.08% | 1,249.68 |
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