Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Burnley is likely to win this match with a probability of 56.99%. A win for Luton has a probability of 21.81%, while a draw has a probability of 21.16%. The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win is “Any Other Home Win“, with a probability of 14.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 with a probability of 9.78% and 2-0 with a probability of 8.17%. The most probable Luton win is 1-2 with a probability of 5.72%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 9.54%.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
By XG
By XG
Full-time Result Based on XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Burnley | Luton | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 2.05 | 1.20 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 56.99% | 21.16% | 21.81% |
| Imp Odds | 1.75 | 4.73 | 4.59 |
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 3.89% | 25.72 |
| 1.5 | 16.51% | 6.06 |
| 2.5 | 37.01% | 2.70 |
| 3.5 | 59.20% | 1.69 |
| 4.5 | 77.21% | 1.30 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 96.11% | 1.04 |
| 1.5 | 83.49% | 1.20 |
| 2.5 | 62.99% | 1.59 |
| 3.5 | 40.80% | 2.45 |
| 4.5 | 22.79% | 4.39 |
Correct Score Based on XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 25.72 | 3.89% |
| 0-1 | 21.47 | 4.66% |
| 0-2 | 35.85 | 2.79% |
| 0-3 | 89.79 | 1.11% |
| 1-0 | 12.55 | 7.97% |
| 1-1 | 10.48 | 9.54% |
| 1-2 | 17.49 | 5.72% |
| 1-3 | 43.81 | 2.28% |
| 2-0 | 12.25 | 8.17% |
| 2-1 | 10.22 | 9.78% |
| 2-2 | 17.07 | 5.86% |
| 2-3 | 42.75 | 2.34% |
| 3-0 | 17.93 | 5.58% |
| 3-1 | 14.97 | 6.68% |
| 3-2 | 24.99 | 4.00% |
| 3-3 | 62.59 | 1.60% |
| Any Other Home Win | 6.75 | 14.81% |
| Any Other Away Win | 40.09 | 2.49% |
| Any Other Draw | 369.07 | 0.27% |