Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Atalanta is likely to win this match with a probability of 52.2%. A win for Milan has a probability of 23.55%, while a draw has a probability of 24.23%. The most likely scoreline for a Atalanta win is 1-0, with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 with a probability of 9.66% and 2-0 with a probability of 9.26%. The most probable Milan win is 0-1 with a probability of 6.86%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 11.52%.
This match offers an excellent opportunity to bet on Atalanta’s win, with bookmakers offering average odds of 2.54, much higher than the 1.92 calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Atalanta | AC Milan | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 1.68 | 1.04 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 52.20% | 24.23% | 23.55% |
| Imp Odds | 1.92 | 4.13 | 4.25 |
Goals Over/Under
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 6.58% | 15.20 |
| 1.5 | 24.48% | 4.09 |
| 2.5 | 48.83% | 2.05 |
| 3.5 | 70.93% | 1.41 |
| 4.5 | 85.97% | 1.16 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 93.42% | 1.07 |
| 1.5 | 75.52% | 1.32 |
| 2.5 | 51.17% | 1.95 |
| 3.5 | 29.07% | 3.44 |
| 4.5 | 14.03% | 7.13 |
Correct Score
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 6.58% | 15.20 |
| 0-1 | 6.86% | 14.57 |
| 0-2 | 3.58% | 27.92 |
| 0-3 | 1.25% | 80.25 |
| 1-0 | 11.04% | 9.06 |
| 1-1 | 11.52% | 8.68 |
| 1-2 | 6.01% | 16.64 |
| 1-3 | 2.09% | 47.83 |
| 2-0 | 9.26% | 10.80 |
| 2-1 | 9.66% | 10.35 |
| 2-2 | 5.04% | 19.83 |
| 2-3 | 1.75% | 57.01 |
| 3-0 | 5.18% | 19.31 |
| 3-1 | 5.40% | 18.50 |
| 3-2 | 2.82% | 35.46 |
| 3-3 | 0.98% | 101.92 |
| Any Other Home Win | 8.84% | 11.31 |
| Any Other Away Win | 1.60% | 62.34 |
| Any Other Draw | 0.12% | 867.39 |