Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Lazio is likely to win this match with a probability of 57.09%. A win for Empoli has a probability of 19.96%, while a draw has a probability of 22.62%. The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win is 0-1, with a probability of 10.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 with a probability of 10% and 1-2 with a probability of 9.89%. The most probable Empoli win is 1-0 with a probability of 5.82%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 10.73%.
This match offers an excellent opportunity to bet on Lazio’s win, with bookmakers offering average odds of 2.1, much higher than the 1.75 calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based on XG
Home Team | Away Team | ||
Empoli | Lazio | ||
Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
0.99 | 1.84 | ||
Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
%Chance | 19.96% | 22.62% | 57.09% |
Imp Odds | 5.01 | 4.42 | 1.75 |
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
Under Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 5.89% | 16.99 |
1.5 | 22.56% | 4.43 |
2.5 | 46.17% | 2.17 |
3.5 | 68.47% | 1.46 |
4.5 | 84.26% | 1.19 |
Over Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 94.11% | 1.06 |
1.5 | 77.44% | 1.29 |
2.5 | 53.83% | 1.86 |
3.5 | 31.53% | 3.17 |
4.5 | 15.74% | 6.35 |
Correct Score Based on XG
Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
0-0 | 16.99 | 5.89% |
0-1 | 9.21 | 10.85% |
0-2 | 10.00 | 10.00% |
0-3 | 16.27 | 6.15% |
1-0 | 17.18 | 5.82% |
1-1 | 9.32 | 10.73% |
1-2 | 10.11 | 9.89% |
1-3 | 16.45 | 6.08% |
2-0 | 34.74 | 2.88% |
2-1 | 18.84 | 5.31% |
2-2 | 20.44 | 4.89% |
2-3 | 33.27 | 3.01% |
3-0 | 105.39 | 0.95% |
3-1 | 57.17 | 1.75% |
3-2 | 62.02 | 1.61% |
3-3 | 100.92 | 0.99% |
Any Other Home Win | 60.69 | 1.65% |
Any Other Away Win | 14.05 | 7.12% |
Any Other Draw | 822.52 | 0.12% |
Full-time Result
Home Team | Away Team | ||
Empoli | Lazio | ||
Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
0.65 | 1.33 | ||
Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
%Chance | 18.29% | 28.54% | 53.07% |
Imp Odds | 5.47 | 3.50 | 1.88 |
Goals Over/Under
Under Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 13.72% | 7.29 |
1.5 | 40.96% | 2.44 |
2.5 | 68.03% | 1.47 |
3.5 | 85.95% | 1.16 |
4.5 | 94.85% | 1.05 |
Over Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 86.28% | 1.16 |
1.5 | 59.04% | 1.69 |
2.5 | 31.97% | 3.13 |
3.5 | 14.05% | 7.12 |
4.5 | 5.15% | 19.44 |
Correct Score
Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
0-0 | 13.72% | 7.29 |
0-1 | 18.28% | 5.47 |
0-2 | 12.19% | 8.21 |
0-3 | 5.41% | 18.47 |
1-0 | 8.97% | 11.15 |
1-1 | 11.95% | 8.37 |
1-2 | 7.96% | 12.56 |
1-3 | 3.54% | 28.26 |
2-0 | 2.93% | 34.13 |
2-1 | 3.91% | 25.61 |
2-2 | 2.60% | 38.42 |
2-3 | 1.16% | 86.46 |
3-0 | 0.64% | 156.66 |
3-1 | 0.85% | 117.52 |
3-2 | 0.57% | 176.33 |
3-3 | 0.25% | 396.85 |
Any Other Home Win | 0.43% | 230.16 |
Any Other Away Win | 2.21% | 45.20 |
Any Other Draw | 0.01% | 7,036.61 |