Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Newcastle is likely to win this match with a probability of 61.46%. A win for Manchester United has a probability of 12.98%, while a draw has a probability of 25.55%. The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle win is 1-0, with a probability of 19.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 with a probability of 14.74% and 2-1 with a probability of 7.95%. The most probable Manchester United win is 0-1 with a probability of 6.87%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 0-0 with a probability of 12.75%.
This match offers an excellent opportunity to bet on Newcastle’s win, with bookmakers offering average odds of 2, much higher than the 1.63 calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result
Home Team | Away Team | ||
Newcastle United | Manchester United | ||
Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
1.52 | 0.54 | ||
Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
%Chance | 61.46% | 25.55% | 12.98% |
Imp Odds | 1.63 | 3.91 | 7.70 |
Goals Over/Under
Under Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 12.75% | 7.84 |
1.5 | 39.01% | 2.56 |
2.5 | 66.05% | 1.51 |
3.5 | 84.62% | 1.18 |
4.5 | 94.18% | 1.06 |
Over Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 87.25% | 1.15 |
1.5 | 60.99% | 1.64 |
2.5 | 33.95% | 2.95 |
3.5 | 15.38% | 6.50 |
4.5 | 5.82% | 17.18 |
Correct Score
Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
0-0 | 12.75% | 7.84 |
0-1 | 6.87% | 14.55 |
0-2 | 1.85% | 53.96 |
0-3 | 0.33% | 300.24 |
1-0 | 19.39% | 5.16 |
1-1 | 10.45% | 9.57 |
1-2 | 2.82% | 35.49 |
1-3 | 0.51% | 197.46 |
2-0 | 14.74% | 6.79 |
2-1 | 7.95% | 12.58 |
2-2 | 2.14% | 46.68 |
2-3 | 0.39% | 259.73 |
3-0 | 7.47% | 13.39 |
3-1 | 4.03% | 24.83 |
3-2 | 1.09% | 92.10 |
3-3 | 0.20% | 512.47 |
Any Other Home Win | 6.81% | 14.69 |
Any Other Away Win | 0.17% | 606.03 |
Any Other Draw | 0.01% | 9,677.07 |