Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Bologna is likely to win this match with a probability of 57.32%. A win for Salernitana has a probability of 15.67%, while a draw has a probability of 26.84%. The most likely scoreline for a Bologna win is 0-1, with a probability of 18.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 with a probability of 13.37% and 1-2 with a probability of 8.16%. The most probable Salernitana win is 1-0 with a probability of 7.81%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 0-0 with a probability of 12.81%.
This match offers an excellent opportunity to bet on Bologna’s win, with bookmakers offering average odds of 2.2, much higher than the 1.74 calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Salernitana | Bologna | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 0.61 | 1.45 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 15.67% | 26.84% | 57.32% |
| Imp Odds | 6.38 | 3.73 | 1.74 |
Goals Over/Under
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 12.81% | 7.81 |
| 1.5 | 39.13% | 2.56 |
| 2.5 | 66.17% | 1.51 |
| 3.5 | 84.70% | 1.18 |
| 4.5 | 94.22% | 1.06 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 87.19% | 1.15 |
| 1.5 | 60.87% | 1.64 |
| 2.5 | 33.83% | 2.96 |
| 3.5 | 15.30% | 6.54 |
| 4.5 | 5.78% | 17.31 |
Correct Score
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 12.81% | 7.81 |
| 0-1 | 18.51% | 5.40 |
| 0-2 | 13.37% | 7.48 |
| 0-3 | 6.44% | 15.53 |
| 1-0 | 7.81% | 12.80 |
| 1-1 | 11.29% | 8.86 |
| 1-2 | 8.16% | 12.26 |
| 1-3 | 3.93% | 25.45 |
| 2-0 | 2.38% | 41.95 |
| 2-1 | 3.44% | 29.03 |
| 2-2 | 2.49% | 40.18 |
| 2-3 | 1.20% | 83.41 |
| 3-0 | 0.48% | 206.24 |
| 3-1 | 0.70% | 142.72 |
| 3-2 | 0.51% | 197.53 |
| 3-3 | 0.24% | 410.08 |
| Any Other Home Win | 0.34% | 296.57 |
| Any Other Away Win | 2.68% | 37.38 |
| Any Other Draw | 0.01% | 7,181.77 |
Full-time Result Based on XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Salernitana | Bologna | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 0.55 | 1.53 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 13.31% | 25.51% | 60.96% |
| Imp Odds | 7.51 | 3.92 | 1.64 |
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 12.49% | 8.01 |
| 1.5 | 38.47% | 2.60 |
| 2.5 | 65.49% | 1.53 |
| 3.5 | 84.23% | 1.19 |
| 4.5 | 93.98% | 1.06 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 87.51% | 1.14 |
| 1.5 | 61.53% | 1.63 |
| 2.5 | 34.51% | 2.90 |
| 3.5 | 15.77% | 6.34 |
| 4.5 | 6.02% | 16.61 |
Correct Score Based on XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 8.01 | 12.49% |
| 0-1 | 5.25 | 19.06% |
| 0-2 | 6.88 | 14.54% |
| 0-3 | 13.52 | 7.40% |
| 1-0 | 14.45 | 6.92% |
| 1-1 | 9.47 | 10.56% |
| 1-2 | 12.41 | 8.06% |
| 1-3 | 24.39 | 4.10% |
| 2-0 | 52.14 | 1.92% |
| 2-1 | 34.16 | 2.93% |
| 2-2 | 44.77 | 2.23% |
| 2-3 | 88.00 | 1.14% |
| 3-0 | 282.25 | 0.35% |
| 3-1 | 184.94 | 0.54% |
| 3-2 | 242.35 | 0.41% |
| 3-3 | 476.38 | 0.21% |
| Any Other Home Win | 421.41 | 0.24% |
| Any Other Away Win | 34.24 | 2.92% |
| Any Other Draw | 8,709.46 | 0.01% |