Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Roma is likely to win this match with a probability of 66.69%. A win for Fiorentina has a probability of 15.05%, while a draw has a probability of 18.18%. The most likely scoreline for a Roma win is “Any Other Home Win“, with a probability of 20.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 with a probability of 9.68% and 2-0 with a probability of 9.38%. The most probable Fiorentina win is 1-2 with a probability of 4.24%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 8.22%.
This match offers an excellent opportunity to bet on Roma’s win, with bookmakers offering average odds of 2.1, much higher than the 1.5 calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Roma | Fiorentina | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 2.35 | 1.03 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 66.69% | 18.18% | 15.05% |
| Imp Odds | 1.50 | 5.50 | 6.65 |
Goals Over/Under
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 3.39% | 29.54 |
| 1.5 | 14.85% | 6.74 |
| 2.5 | 34.25% | 2.92 |
| 3.5 | 56.15% | 1.78 |
| 4.5 | 74.68% | 1.34 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 96.61% | 1.04 |
| 1.5 | 85.15% | 1.17 |
| 2.5 | 65.75% | 1.52 |
| 3.5 | 43.85% | 2.28 |
| 4.5 | 25.32% | 3.95 |
Correct Score
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 3.39% | 29.54 |
| 0-1 | 3.49% | 28.62 |
| 0-2 | 1.80% | 55.45 |
| 0-3 | 0.62% | 161.16 |
| 1-0 | 7.97% | 12.55 |
| 1-1 | 8.22% | 12.16 |
| 1-2 | 4.24% | 23.56 |
| 1-3 | 1.46% | 68.48 |
| 2-0 | 9.38% | 10.67 |
| 2-1 | 9.68% | 10.33 |
| 2-2 | 4.99% | 20.02 |
| 2-3 | 1.72% | 58.19 |
| 3-0 | 7.36% | 13.60 |
| 3-1 | 7.59% | 13.17 |
| 3-2 | 3.92% | 25.52 |
| 3-3 | 1.35% | 74.18 |
| Any Other Home Win | 20.81% | 4.81 |
| Any Other Away Win | 1.51% | 66.11 |
| Any Other Draw | 0.23% | 442.51 |