Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Koln will likely win this match with a probability of 41.3%. A win for Heidenheim has a probability of 34.22%, while a draw has a probability of 24.42%. The most likely scoreline for a Koln win is 2-1, with a probability of 8.82%. The next most likely scoreline for that outcome is 1-0 with a probability of 8.1%. The most probable Heidenheim win is 1-2 with a probability of 7.92%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 11.33%.
This match presents an excellent opportunity to consider betting on Heidenheim not to lose, as bookmakers are offering average odds of 2 for Koln’s win, which is lower than the 2.42 calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based On XG
Home Team | Away Team | ||
Koln | Heidenheim | ||
Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
1.56 | 1.40 | ||
Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
%Chance | 41.30% | 24.42% | 34.22% |
Imp Odds | 2.42 | 4.10 | 2.92 |
Goals Over/Under Based On XG
Under Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 5.20% | 19.24 |
1.5 | 20.57% | 4.86 |
2.5 | 43.29% | 2.31 |
3.5 | 65.69% | 1.52 |
4.5 | 82.25% | 1.22 |
Over Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 94.80% | 1.05 |
1.5 | 79.43% | 1.26 |
2.5 | 56.71% | 1.76 |
3.5 | 34.31% | 2.91 |
4.5 | 17.75% | 5.63 |
Correct Score Based On XG
Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
0-0 | 19.24 | 5.20% |
0-1 | 13.75 | 7.27% |
0-2 | 19.66 | 5.09% |
0-3 | 42.16 | 2.37% |
1-0 | 12.35 | 8.10% |
1-1 | 8.83 | 11.33% |
1-2 | 12.62 | 7.92% |
1-3 | 27.06 | 3.70% |
2-0 | 15.85 | 6.31% |
2-1 | 11.33 | 8.82% |
2-2 | 16.20 | 6.17% |
2-3 | 34.74 | 2.88% |
3-0 | 30.53 | 3.28% |
3-1 | 21.82 | 4.58% |
3-2 | 31.20 | 3.21% |
3-3 | 66.90 | 1.49% |
Any Other Home Win | 14.27 | 7.01% |
Any Other Away Win | 25.52 | 3.92% |
Any Other Draw | 449.44 | 0.22% |
Full-time Result
Home Team | Away Team | ||
Koln | Heidenheim | ||
Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
0.98 | 1.02 | ||
Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
%Chance | 33.43% | 30.84% | 35.71% |
Imp Odds | 2.99 | 3.24 | 2.80 |
Goals Over/Under
Under Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 13.53% | 7.39 |
1.5 | 40.59% | 2.46 |
2.5 | 67.65% | 1.48 |
3.5 | 85.70% | 1.17 |
4.5 | 94.73% | 1.06 |
Over Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 86.47% | 1.16 |
1.5 | 59.41% | 1.68 |
2.5 | 32.35% | 3.09 |
3.5 | 14.30% | 6.99 |
4.5 | 5.27% | 18.98 |
Correct Score
Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
0-0 | 13.53% | 7.39 |
0-1 | 13.83% | 7.23 |
0-2 | 7.07% | 14.15 |
0-3 | 2.41% | 41.53 |
1-0 | 13.23% | 7.56 |
1-1 | 13.53% | 7.39 |
1-2 | 6.91% | 14.46 |
1-3 | 2.36% | 42.45 |
2-0 | 6.47% | 15.45 |
2-1 | 6.62% | 15.11 |
2-2 | 3.38% | 29.57 |
2-3 | 1.15% | 86.79 |
3-0 | 2.11% | 47.37 |
3-1 | 2.16% | 46.34 |
3-2 | 1.10% | 90.68 |
3-3 | 0.38% | 266.14 |
Any Other Home Win | 1.74% | 57.53 |
Any Other Away Win | 1.24% | 80.55 |
Any Other Draw | 0.02% | 4,090.08 |