Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Montpellier is likely to win this match with a probability of 42.87%. A win for Lyon has a probability of 22.68%, while a draw has a probability of 34.44%. The most likely scoreline for a Montpellier win is 1-0, with a probability of 19.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 with a probability of 9.65% and 2-1 with a probability of 6.02%. The most probable Lyon win is 0-1 with a probability of 12.56%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 0-0 with a probability of 20.15%.
This match presents an excellent opportunity to consider betting on Montpellier not to lose, as bookmakers are offering average odds of 2.8 for it’s win, which is higher than the 2.33 calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Montpellier | Lyon | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 0.98 | 0.62 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 42.87% | 34.44% | 22.68% |
| Imp Odds | 2.33 | 2.90 | 4.41 |
Goals Over/Under
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 20.15% | 4.96 |
| 1.5 | 52.42% | 1.91 |
| 2.5 | 78.28% | 1.28 |
| 3.5 | 92.09% | 1.09 |
| 4.5 | 97.62% | 1.02 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 79.85% | 1.25 |
| 1.5 | 47.58% | 2.10 |
| 2.5 | 21.72% | 4.60 |
| 3.5 | 7.91% | 12.64 |
| 4.5 | 2.38% | 42.01 |
Correct Score
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 20.15% | 4.96 |
| 0-1 | 12.56% | 7.96 |
| 0-2 | 3.91% | 25.55 |
| 0-3 | 0.81% | 122.94 |
| 1-0 | 19.72% | 5.07 |
| 1-1 | 12.29% | 8.14 |
| 1-2 | 3.83% | 26.10 |
| 1-3 | 0.80% | 125.60 |
| 2-0 | 9.65% | 10.36 |
| 2-1 | 6.02% | 16.62 |
| 2-2 | 1.88% | 53.33 |
| 2-3 | 0.39% | 256.64 |
| 3-0 | 3.15% | 31.76 |
| 3-1 | 1.96% | 50.95 |
| 3-2 | 0.61% | 163.45 |
| 3-3 | 0.13% | 786.59 |
| Any Other Home Win | 1.77% | 56.63 |
| Any Other Away Wins | 0.23% | 427.85 |
| Any Other Draw | 0.00% | 20,125.85 |
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