Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Borussia Dortmund is likely to win this match with a probability of 61.82%. A win for Freiburg has a probability of 17.59%, while a draw has a probability of 20.55%. The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win is “Any Other Home Win“, with a probability of 15.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 with a probability of 9.95% and 2-0 with a probability of 9.87%. The most probable Freiburg win is 1-2 with a probability of 4.84%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 9.61%.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Borussia Dortmund | Freiburg | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 2.07 | 1.01 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 61.82% | 20.55% | 17.59% |
| Imp Odds | 1.62 | 4.87 | 5.68 |
Goals Over/Under
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 4.61% | 21.71 |
| 1.5 | 18.79% | 5.32 |
| 2.5 | 40.60% | 2.46 |
| 3.5 | 62.99% | 1.59 |
| 4.5 | 80.21% | 1.25 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 95.39% | 1.05 |
| 1.5 | 81.21% | 1.23 |
| 2.5 | 59.40% | 1.68 |
| 3.5 | 37.01% | 2.70 |
| 4.5 | 19.79% | 5.05 |
Correct Score
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 4.61% | 21.71 |
| 0-1 | 4.64% | 21.54 |
| 0-2 | 2.34% | 42.75 |
| 0-3 | 0.79% | 127.29 |
| 1-0 | 9.54% | 10.49 |
| 1-1 | 9.61% | 10.41 |
| 1-2 | 4.84% | 20.66 |
| 1-3 | 1.63% | 61.49 |
| 2-0 | 9.87% | 10.13 |
| 2-1 | 9.95% | 10.06 |
| 2-2 | 5.01% | 19.96 |
| 2-3 | 1.68% | 59.42 |
| 3-0 | 6.81% | 14.68 |
| 3-1 | 6.86% | 14.57 |
| 3-2 | 3.46% | 28.92 |
| 3-3 | 1.16% | 86.11 |
| Any Other Home Win | 15.34% | 6.52 |
| Any Other Away Win | 1.44% | 69.61 |
| Any Other Draw | 0.16% | 606.87 |
Full-time Result Based On XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Borussia Dortmund | Freiburg | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 2.15 | 1.20 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 58.96% | 20.37% | 20.61% |
| Imp Odds | 1.70 | 4.91 | 4.85 |
Goals Over/Under Based On XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 3.49% | 28.64 |
| 1.5 | 15.20% | 6.58 |
| 2.5 | 34.85% | 2.87 |
| 3.5 | 56.82% | 1.76 |
| 4.5 | 75.25% | 1.33 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 96.51% | 1.04 |
| 1.5 | 84.80% | 1.18 |
| 2.5 | 65.15% | 1.53 |
| 3.5 | 43.18% | 2.32 |
| 4.5 | 24.75% | 4.04 |
Correct Score Based On XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 28.64 | 3.49% |
| 0-1 | 23.80 | 4.20% |
| 0-2 | 39.55 | 2.53% |
| 0-3 | 98.58 | 1.01% |
| 1-0 | 13.31 | 7.51% |
| 1-1 | 11.06 | 9.04% |
| 1-2 | 18.38 | 5.44% |
| 1-3 | 45.82 | 2.18% |
| 2-0 | 12.38 | 8.08% |
| 2-1 | 10.28 | 9.72% |
| 2-2 | 17.09 | 5.85% |
| 2-3 | 42.60 | 2.35% |
| 3-0 | 17.26 | 5.79% |
| 3-1 | 14.34 | 6.97% |
| 3-2 | 23.83 | 4.20% |
| 3-3 | 59.40 | 1.68% |
| Any Other Home Win | 5.99 | 16.69% |
| Any Other Away Win | 39.74 | 2.52% |
| Any Other Draw | 330.27 | 0.30% |
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