Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Leipzig is likely to win this match with a probability of 40.3%. A win for Borussia Dortmund has a probability of 33.84%, while a draw has a probability of 25.78%. The most likely scoreline for a Leipzig win is 0-1, with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 with a probability of 8.67% and 0-2 with a probability of 6.8%. The most probable Borussia Dortmund win is 1-0 with a probability of 8.64%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 12.24%.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
XG
Goals
XG
Full-time Result Based on XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Borussia Dortmund | Leipzig | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 1.28 | 1.42 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 33.84% | 25.78% | 40.30% |
| Imp Odds | 2.96 | 3.88 | 2.48 |
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 6.77% | 14.77 |
| 1.5 | 25.00% | 4.00 |
| 2.5 | 49.55% | 2.02 |
| 3.5 | 71.58% | 1.40 |
| 4.5 | 86.40% | 1.16 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 93.23% | 1.07 |
| 1.5 | 75.00% | 1.33 |
| 2.5 | 50.45% | 1.98 |
| 3.5 | 28.42% | 3.52 |
| 4.5 | 13.60% | 7.35 |
Correct Score Based on XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 14.77 | 6.77% |
| 0-1 | 10.42 | 9.60% |
| 0-2 | 14.71 | 6.80% |
| 0-3 | 31.13 | 3.21% |
| 1-0 | 11.58 | 8.64% |
| 1-1 | 8.17 | 12.24% |
| 1-2 | 11.53 | 8.67% |
| 1-3 | 24.41 | 4.10% |
| 2-0 | 18.16 | 5.51% |
| 2-1 | 12.81 | 7.80% |
| 2-2 | 18.09 | 5.53% |
| 2-3 | 38.28 | 2.61% |
| 3-0 | 42.72 | 2.34% |
| 3-1 | 30.15 | 3.32% |
| 3-2 | 42.54 | 2.35% |
| 3-3 | 90.06 | 1.11% |
| Any Other Home Win | 25.76 | 3.88% |
| Any Other Away Win | 26.08 | 3.83% |
| Any Other Draw | 740.97 | 0.13% |
Goals
Full-time Result
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Borussia Dortmund | Leipzig | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 1.27 | 1.59 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 30.59% | 24.61% | 44.67% |
| Imp Odds | 3.27 | 4.06 | 2.24 |
Goals Over/Under
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 5.71% | 17.51 |
| 1.5 | 22.06% | 4.53 |
| 2.5 | 45.46% | 2.20 |
| 3.5 | 67.80% | 1.48 |
| 4.5 | 83.78% | 1.19 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 94.29% | 1.06 |
| 1.5 | 77.94% | 1.28 |
| 2.5 | 54.54% | 1.83 |
| 3.5 | 32.20% | 3.11 |
| 4.5 | 16.22% | 6.16 |
Correct Score
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 5.71% | 17.51 |
| 0-1 | 9.08% | 11.01 |
| 0-2 | 7.22% | 13.85 |
| 0-3 | 3.83% | 26.13 |
| 1-0 | 7.27% | 13.76 |
| 1-1 | 11.56% | 8.65 |
| 1-2 | 9.19% | 10.88 |
| 1-3 | 4.87% | 20.53 |
| 2-0 | 4.62% | 21.62 |
| 2-1 | 7.35% | 13.60 |
| 2-2 | 5.85% | 17.10 |
| 2-3 | 3.10% | 32.27 |
| 3-0 | 1.96% | 50.97 |
| 3-1 | 3.12% | 32.06 |
| 3-2 | 2.48% | 40.32 |
| 3-3 | 1.31% | 76.07 |
| Any Other Home Win | 3.78% | 26.43 |
| Any Other Away Win | 5.34% | 18.74 |
| Any Other Draw | 0.18% | 553.99 |