Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Borussia M.Gladbach is likely to win this match with a probability of 79.93%. A win for Cologne has a probability of 6.39%, while a draw has a probability of 10.77%. The most likely scoreline for a Borussia M.Gladbach win is “Any Other Away Win,” with a probability of 22.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-3 with a probability of 9.57% and 0-2 with a probability of 8.95%. The most probable Cologne win is 2-1 with a probability of 1.99%, while for a drawn scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 4.71%.
This match offers an excellent opportunity to bet on Borussia M.Gladbach’s win, with bookmakers offering average odds of 3, much higher than the 1.25 calculated by our model.
Below are tables with match analyses by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Match Result Market By XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| FC Cologne | Borussia M.Gladbach | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 0.84 | 3.21 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 6.39% | 10.77% | 79.93% |
| Imp Odds | 15.65 | 9.28 | 1.25 |
Over and Under Market By XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 1.74% | 57.46 |
| 1.5 | 8.79% | 11.38 |
| 2.5 | 23.07% | 4.33 |
| 3.5 | 42.35% | 2.36 |
| 4.5 | 61.88% | 1.62 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 98.26% | 1.02 |
| 1.5 | 91.21% | 1.10 |
| 2.5 | 76.93% | 1.30 |
| 3.5 | 57.65% | 1.73 |
| 4.5 | 38.12% | 2.62 |
Correct Score Market By XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 57.46 | 1.74% |
| 0-1 | 17.92 | 5.58% |
| 0-2 | 11.17 | 8.95% |
| 0-3 | 10.45 | 9.57% |
| 1-0 | 68.11 | 1.47% |
| 1-1 | 21.23 | 4.71% |
| 1-2 | 13.24 | 7.55% |
| 1-3 | 12.38 | 8.07% |
| 2-0 | 161.45 | 0.62% |
| 2-1 | 50.34 | 1.99% |
| 2-2 | 31.39 | 3.19% |
| 2-3 | 29.36 | 3.41% |
| 3-0 | 574.09 | 0.17% |
| 3-1 | 178.99 | 0.56% |
| 3-2 | 111.61 | 0.90% |
| 3-3 | 104.39 | 0.96% |
| Any Other Home Win | 145.55 | 0.69% |
| Any Other Away Win | 4.50 | 22.20% |
| Any Other Draw | 552.62 | 0.18% |