Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin

Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Hoffenheim is likely to win this match with a probability of 44.28%. A win for Union Berlin has a probability of 30.7%, while a draw has a probability of 24.9%. The most likely scoreline for a Hoffenheim win is 0-1, with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 with a probability of 9.14% and 0-2 with a probability of 7.29%. The most probable Union Berlin win is 1-0 with a probability of 7.54%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 11.74%.

This match presents a compelling opportunity to bet on Hoffenheim to win. Bookmakers are offering average odds of 2, higher than our model’s predictions of 1.83 (based on goal statistics) and 1.95 (based on expected goals, or XG, which estimates the likelihood of scoring based on shot quality and location). This discrepancy suggests that bookmakers may be overvaluing the opponent, making Hoffenheim a potentially valuable bet.