Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Stuttgart is likely to win this match with a probability of 56.75%. A win for Leipzig has a probability of 21.9%, while a draw has a probability of 21.31%. The most likely scoreline for a Stuttgart win is “Any Other Home Win“, with a probability of 14.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 with a probability of 9.8% and 2-0 with a probability of 8.23%. The most probable Leipzig win is 1-2 with a probability of 5.74%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 9.65%.
This match presents an excellent opportunity to consider betting on Stuttgart to win the match, as bookmakers are offering average odds of 2.54 for Juventus’s win, which is higher than the 1.76 calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based on XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| VfB Stuttgart | RB Leipzig | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 2.03 | 1.19 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 56.75% | 21.31% | 21.90% |
| Imp Odds | 1.76 | 4.69 | 4.57 |
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 4.00% | 25.01 |
| 1.5 | 16.87% | 5.93 |
| 2.5 | 37.59% | 2.66 |
| 3.5 | 59.82% | 1.67 |
| 4.5 | 77.71% | 1.29 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 96.00% | 1.04 |
| 1.5 | 83.13% | 1.20 |
| 2.5 | 62.41% | 1.60 |
| 3.5 | 40.18% | 2.49 |
| 4.5 | 22.29% | 4.49 |
Correct Score Based on XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 25.01 | 4.00% |
| 0-1 | 21.02 | 4.76% |
| 0-2 | 35.33 | 2.83% |
| 0-3 | 89.09 | 1.12% |
| 1-0 | 12.32 | 8.11% |
| 1-1 | 10.36 | 9.65% |
| 1-2 | 17.41 | 5.74% |
| 1-3 | 43.90 | 2.28% |
| 2-0 | 12.15 | 8.23% |
| 2-1 | 10.21 | 9.80% |
| 2-2 | 17.16 | 5.83% |
| 2-3 | 43.26 | 2.31% |
| 3-0 | 17.95 | 5.57% |
| 3-1 | 15.09 | 6.63% |
| 3-2 | 25.36 | 3.94% |
| 3-3 | 63.94 | 1.56% |
| Any Other Home Win | 6.91 | 14.46% |
| Any Other Away Win | 40.90 | 2.44% |
| Any Other Draw | 383.92 | 0.26% |