Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Atletico Madrid is likely to win this match with a probability of 87.48%. A win for Almeria has a probability of 3.63%, while a draw has a probability of 7.94%. The most likely scoreline for a Atletico Madrid win is “Any Other Home Win“, with a probability of 44.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 3-0 with a probability of 11.26% and 2-0 with a probability of 9.71%. The most probable Almeria win is 1-2 with a probability of 1.19%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 3.65%.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
XG
Goals
XG
Full-time Result Based on XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Atletico Madrid | Almeria | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 3.48 | 0.65 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 87.48% | 7.94% | 3.63% |
| Imp Odds | 1.14 | 12.59 | 27.53 |
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 1.61% | 62.23 |
| 1.5 | 8.24% | 12.13 |
| 2.5 | 21.96% | 4.55 |
| 3.5 | 40.83% | 2.45 |
| 4.5 | 60.33% | 1.66 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 98.39% | 1.02 |
| 1.5 | 91.76% | 1.09 |
| 2.5 | 78.04% | 1.28 |
| 3.5 | 59.17% | 1.69 |
| 4.5 | 39.67% | 2.52 |
Correct Score Based on XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 62.23 | 1.61% |
| 0-1 | 95.20 | 1.05% |
| 0-2 | 291.27 | 0.34% |
| 0-3 | 1,336.77 | 0.07% |
| 1-0 | 17.90 | 5.59% |
| 1-1 | 27.38 | 3.65% |
| 1-2 | 83.77 | 1.19% |
| 1-3 | 384.44 | 0.26% |
| 2-0 | 10.29 | 9.71% |
| 2-1 | 15.75 | 6.35% |
| 2-2 | 48.18 | 2.08% |
| 2-3 | 221.13 | 0.45% |
| 3-0 | 8.88 | 11.26% |
| 3-1 | 13.59 | 7.36% |
| 3-2 | 41.57 | 2.41% |
| 3-3 | 190.78 | 0.52% |
| Any Other Home Win | 2.23 | 44.80% |
| Any Other Away Win | 410.82 | 0.24% |
| Any Other Draw | 1,224.30 | 0.08% |
Goals
Full-time Result
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Atletico Madrid | Almeria | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 4.28 | 0.71 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 89.77% | 4.95% | 2.20% |
| Imp Odds | 1.11 | 20.21 | 45.38 |
Goals Over/Under
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 0.69% | 145.86 |
| 1.5 | 4.10% | 24.38 |
| 2.5 | 12.61% | 7.93 |
| 3.5 | 26.75% | 3.74 |
| 4.5 | 44.35% | 2.25 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 99.31% | 1.01 |
| 1.5 | 95.90% | 1.04 |
| 2.5 | 87.39% | 1.14 |
| 3.5 | 73.25% | 1.37 |
| 4.5 | 55.65% | 1.80 |
Correct Score
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 0.69% | 145.86 |
| 0-1 | 0.48% | 206.83 |
| 0-2 | 0.17% | 586.60 |
| 0-3 | 0.04% | 2,495.51 |
| 1-0 | 2.93% | 34.10 |
| 1-1 | 2.07% | 48.35 |
| 1-2 | 0.73% | 137.14 |
| 1-3 | 0.17% | 583.41 |
| 2-0 | 6.27% | 15.94 |
| 2-1 | 4.42% | 22.61 |
| 2-2 | 1.56% | 64.12 |
| 2-3 | 0.37% | 272.79 |
| 3-0 | 8.94% | 11.18 |
| 3-1 | 6.31% | 15.86 |
| 3-2 | 2.22% | 44.97 |
| 3-3 | 0.52% | 191.32 |
| Any Other Home Win | 58.67% | 1.70 |
| Any Other Away Win | 0.23% | 427.01 |
| Any Other Draw | 0.11% | 896.95 |