Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Atletico Madrid is likely to win this match with a probability of 37.85%. A win for Barcelona has a probability of 36.34%, while a draw has a probability of 25.75%. The most likely scoreline for a Atletico Madrid win is 0-1, with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 with a probability of 8.38% and 0-2 with a probability of 6.26%. The most probable Barcelona win is 1-0 with a probability of 8.89%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 12.21%.
This match offers an excellent opportunity to bet on Atletico Madrid’s win, with bookmakers offering average odds of 3.8, much higher than the 2.64 calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based on XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Barcelona | Atletico Madrid | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 1.34 | 1.37 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 36.34% | 25.75% | 37.85% |
| Imp Odds | 2.75 | 3.88 | 2.64 |
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 6.64% | 15.06 |
| 1.5 | 24.65% | 4.06 |
| 2.5 | 49.07% | 2.04 |
| 3.5 | 71.15% | 1.41 |
| 4.5 | 86.11% | 1.16 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 93.36% | 1.07 |
| 1.5 | 75.35% | 1.33 |
| 2.5 | 50.93% | 1.96 |
| 3.5 | 28.85% | 3.47 |
| 4.5 | 13.89% | 7.20 |
Correct Score Based on XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 15.06 | 6.64% |
| 0-1 | 10.97 | 9.12% |
| 0-2 | 15.98 | 6.26% |
| 0-3 | 34.91 | 2.86% |
| 1-0 | 11.25 | 8.89% |
| 1-1 | 8.19 | 12.21% |
| 1-2 | 11.93 | 8.38% |
| 1-3 | 26.07 | 3.84% |
| 2-0 | 16.80 | 5.95% |
| 2-1 | 12.24 | 8.17% |
| 2-2 | 17.82 | 5.61% |
| 2-3 | 38.94 | 2.57% |
| 3-0 | 37.64 | 2.66% |
| 3-1 | 27.42 | 3.65% |
| 3-2 | 39.93 | 2.50% |
| 3-3 | 87.26 | 1.15% |
| Any Other Home Win | 22.15 | 4.52% |
| Any Other Away Win | 28.15 | 3.55% |
| Any Other Draw | 704.85 | 0.14% |
Full-time Result
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Barcelona | Atletico Madrid | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 1.15 | 1.23 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 34.31% | 27.78% | 37.87% |
| Imp Odds | 2.91 | 3.60 | 2.64 |
Goals Over/Under
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 9.26% | 10.80 |
| 1.5 | 31.28% | 3.20 |
| 2.5 | 57.49% | 1.74 |
| 3.5 | 78.29% | 1.28 |
| 4.5 | 90.66% | 1.10 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 90.74% | 1.10 |
| 1.5 | 68.72% | 1.46 |
| 2.5 | 42.51% | 2.35 |
| 3.5 | 21.71% | 4.61 |
| 4.5 | 9.34% | 10.71 |
Correct Score
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 9.26% | 10.80 |
| 0-1 | 11.36% | 8.81 |
| 0-2 | 6.97% | 14.35 |
| 0-3 | 2.85% | 35.09 |
| 1-0 | 10.67% | 9.37 |
| 1-1 | 13.09% | 7.64 |
| 1-2 | 8.03% | 12.45 |
| 1-3 | 3.29% | 30.44 |
| 2-0 | 6.15% | 16.26 |
| 2-1 | 7.55% | 13.25 |
| 2-2 | 4.63% | 21.59 |
| 2-3 | 1.89% | 52.80 |
| 3-0 | 2.36% | 42.29 |
| 3-1 | 2.90% | 34.47 |
| 3-2 | 1.78% | 56.19 |
| 3-3 | 0.73% | 137.37 |
| Any Other Home Win | 2.89% | 34.55 |
| Any Other Away Win | 2.39% | 41.90 |
| Any Other Draw | 0.07% | 1,467.25 |