Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Real Madrid is likely to win this match with a probability of 80.22%. A win for Villarreal has a probability of 7.15%, while a draw has a probability of 12.31%. The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win is “Any Other Home Win“, with a probability of 32.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 with a probability of 10.46% and 3-0 with a probability of 10.18%. The most probable Villarreal win is 1-2 with a probability of 2.22%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 5.65%.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
By XG
By XG
Full-time Result Based on XG
Home Team | Away Team | ||
Real Madrid | Villarreal | ||
Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
2.92 | 0.79 | ||
Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
%Chance | 80.22% | 12.31% | 7.15% |
Imp Odds | 1.25 | 8.13 | 13.98 |
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
Under Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 2.46% | 40.72 |
1.5 | 11.56% | 8.65 |
2.5 | 28.43% | 3.52 |
3.5 | 49.28% | 2.03 |
4.5 | 68.59% | 1.46 |
Over Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 97.54% | 1.03 |
1.5 | 88.44% | 1.13 |
2.5 | 71.57% | 1.40 |
3.5 | 50.72% | 1.97 |
4.5 | 31.41% | 3.18 |
Correct Score Based on XG
Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
0-0 | 40.72 | 2.46% |
0-1 | 51.70 | 1.93% |
0-2 | 131.28 | 0.76% |
0-3 | 500.08 | 0.20% |
1-0 | 13.95 | 7.17% |
1-1 | 17.71 | 5.65% |
1-2 | 44.97 | 2.22% |
1-3 | 171.32 | 0.58% |
2-0 | 9.56 | 10.46% |
2-1 | 12.13 | 8.24% |
2-2 | 30.81 | 3.25% |
2-3 | 117.38 | 0.85% |
3-0 | 9.82 | 10.18% |
3-1 | 12.47 | 8.02% |
3-2 | 31.67 | 3.16% |
3-3 | 120.63 | 0.83% |
Any Other Home Win | 3.03 | 32.99% |
Any Other Away Win | 181.91 | 0.55% |
Any Other Draw | 764.56 | 0.13% |