Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Barcelona is likely to win this match with a probability of 40.01%. A win for Valencia has a probability of 26.93%, while a draw has a probability of 33.03%. The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win is 0-1, with a probability of 17.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 with a probability of 8.59% and 1-2 with a probability of 6.52%. The most probable Valencia win is 1-0 with a probability of 13.11%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 0-0 with a probability of 17.27%.
This match offers an opportunity to bet on Valencia’s not to lose (win or draw), with bookmakers offering average odds for Barcelona win of 1.7, much lower than the 2.5 calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based on XG
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
Correct Score Based on XG