Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Marseille is likely to win this match with a probability of 62.3%. A win for Lorient has a probability of 13.72%, while a draw has a probability of 23.69%. The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win is 0-1, with a probability of 16.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 with a probability of 13.69% and 1-2 with a probability of 8.82%. The most probable Lorient win is 1-0 with a probability of 6.31%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 10.55%.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
XG
XG
Full-time Result Based on XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Lorient | Marseille | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 0.63 | 1.67 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 13.72% | 23.69% | 62.30% |
| Imp Odds | 7.29 | 4.22 | 1.61 |
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 10.00% | 10.00 |
| 1.5 | 33.03% | 3.03 |
| 2.5 | 59.54% | 1.68 |
| 3.5 | 79.88% | 1.25 |
| 4.5 | 91.60% | 1.09 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 90.00% | 1.11 |
| 1.5 | 66.97% | 1.49 |
| 2.5 | 40.46% | 2.47 |
| 3.5 | 20.12% | 4.97 |
| 4.5 | 8.40% | 11.90 |
Correct Score Based on XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 10.00 | 10.00% |
| 0-1 | 5.98 | 16.71% |
| 0-2 | 7.16 | 13.96% |
| 0-3 | 12.86 | 7.78% |
| 1-0 | 15.84 | 6.31% |
| 1-1 | 9.48 | 10.55% |
| 1-2 | 11.34 | 8.82% |
| 1-3 | 20.36 | 4.91% |
| 2-0 | 50.16 | 1.99% |
| 2-1 | 30.02 | 3.33% |
| 2-2 | 35.92 | 2.78% |
| 2-3 | 64.49 | 1.55% |
| 3-0 | 238.31 | 0.42% |
| 3-1 | 142.60 | 0.70% |
| 3-2 | 170.67 | 0.59% |
| 3-3 | 306.39 | 0.33% |
| Any Other Home Win | 270.77 | 0.37% |
| Any Other Away Win | 24.19 | 4.13% |
| Any Other Draw | 4,452.24 | 0.02% |