Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Nice is likely to win this match with a probability of 47.64%. A win for Lyon has a probability of 23.27%, while a draw has a probability of 29.02%. The most likely scoreline for a Nice win is 0-1, with a probability of 16.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 with a probability of 10.24% and 1-2 with a probability of 8.16%. The most probable Lyon win is 1-0 with a probability of 10.03%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 12.79%.
This match presents an excellent opportunity to consider betting on Nice to win the match, as bookmakers are offering average odds of 2.8 for Nice to win, which is higher than the 2.1 calculated by our model (based on goal statistics) and 1.95 based on XG.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based On XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Lyon | Nice | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 1.17 | 1.77 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 25.16% | 23.39% | 51.22% |
| Imp Odds | 3.97 | 4.28 | 1.95 |
Goals Over/Under Based On XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 5.29% | 18.91 |
| 1.5 | 20.84% | 4.80 |
| 2.5 | 43.69% | 2.29 |
| 3.5 | 66.08% | 1.51 |
| 4.5 | 82.53% | 1.21 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 94.71% | 1.06 |
| 1.5 | 79.16% | 1.26 |
| 2.5 | 56.31% | 1.78 |
| 3.5 | 33.92% | 2.95 |
| 4.5 | 17.47% | 5.73 |
Correct Score Based On XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 18.91 | 5.29% |
| 0-1 | 10.68 | 9.36% |
| 0-2 | 12.07 | 8.29% |
| 0-3 | 20.45 | 4.89% |
| 1-0 | 16.17 | 6.19% |
| 1-1 | 9.13 | 10.95% |
| 1-2 | 10.32 | 9.69% |
| 1-3 | 17.49 | 5.72% |
| 2-0 | 27.65 | 3.62% |
| 2-1 | 15.62 | 6.40% |
| 2-2 | 17.65 | 5.67% |
| 2-3 | 29.91 | 3.34% |
| 3-0 | 70.94 | 1.41% |
| 3-1 | 40.08 | 2.50% |
| 3-2 | 45.28 | 2.21% |
| 3-3 | 76.75 | 1.30% |
| Any Other Home Win | 35.15 | 2.84% |
| Any Other Away Win | 14.44 | 6.92% |
| Any Other Draw | 545.37 | 0.18% |
Full-time Result
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Lyon | Nice | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 0.80 | 1.28 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 23.27% | 29.02% | 47.64% |
| Imp Odds | 4.30 | 3.45 | 2.10 |
Goals Over/Under
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 12.58% | 7.95 |
| 1.5 | 38.65% | 2.59 |
| 2.5 | 65.68% | 1.52 |
| 3.5 | 84.37% | 1.19 |
| 4.5 | 94.05% | 1.06 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 87.42% | 1.14 |
| 1.5 | 61.35% | 1.63 |
| 2.5 | 34.32% | 2.91 |
| 3.5 | 15.63% | 6.40 |
| 4.5 | 5.95% | 16.80 |
Correct Score
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 12.58% | 7.95 |
| 0-1 | 16.05% | 6.23 |
| 0-2 | 10.24% | 9.77 |
| 0-3 | 4.36% | 22.96 |
| 1-0 | 10.03% | 9.97 |
| 1-1 | 12.79% | 7.82 |
| 1-2 | 8.16% | 12.25 |
| 1-3 | 3.47% | 28.80 |
| 2-0 | 4.00% | 25.02 |
| 2-1 | 5.10% | 19.61 |
| 2-2 | 3.25% | 30.73 |
| 2-3 | 1.38% | 72.25 |
| 3-0 | 1.06% | 94.17 |
| 3-1 | 1.36% | 73.79 |
| 3-2 | 0.86% | 115.65 |
| 3-3 | 0.37% | 271.88 |
| Any Other Home Win | 0.87% | 115.59 |
| Any Other Away Wins | 2.21% | 45.26 |
| Any Other Draw | 0.02% | 4,104.20 |