Marseille vs Lorient

Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Marseille is likely to win this match with a probability of 78.76%. A win for Lorient has a probability of 6.9%, while a draw has a probability of 14.22%. The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win is “Any Other Home Win“, with a probability of 24.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 with a probability of 13.98% and 3-0 with a probability of 11.69%. The most probable Lorient win is 0-1 with a probability of 2.69%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 6.74%.

This match presents a compelling opportunity to bet on Marseille to win. Bookmakers are offering average odds of 1.45, higher than our model’s predictions of 1.27 (based on goal statistics) and 1.33 (based on expected goals, or XG, which estimates the likelihood of scoring based on shot quality and location). This discrepancy suggests that bookmakers may be overvaluing the opponent, making Marseille a potentially valuable bet.

The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.